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本周周国内焊管价格或弱势震荡为主

国内焊管价格大幅回落，监测数据显示，截至11月16日，国内十大重点城市4寸焊管均价为 4488元(吨价，下同)，比上周同期焊管价格下跌84元，各中心城市均有不同程度的下跌，其中唐山下调140元、天津下调130元、北京降100元、西 安降50元、武汉降100元、沈阳降50元、上海降70元、济南降100元、广州降70元、成都降30元，市场成交较弱。
Domestic welded pipe prices have fallen sharply. Monitoring data show that as of November 16, the average price of 4-inch welded pipe in ten key cities in China was 4488 yuan (ton price, the same below), 84 yuan lower than that in the same period last week. The prices of welded pipe in all central cities have fallen to varying degrees, including 140 yuan lower in Tangshan, 130 yuan lower in Tianjin, 100 yuan lower in Beijing and 100 yuan lower in West China. Anjian 50 yuan, Wuhan 100 yuan, Shenyang 50 yuan, Shanghai 70 yuan, Jinan 100 yuan, Guangzhou 70 yuan, Chengdu 30 yuan, the market turnover is weak. 原料方面
Raw materials

钢坯方面，截至今日唐山钢坯报价3680元，比上周同期降120元。本周(11.12-11.16)钢坯市场大幅下挫后开始低位整理，市场瞬间跌 入冰点。本周虽然包含唐山、北京等华北城市突然遭受重污染天气，但由于影响时间较短，加之之前及之后的空气均相对良好，故从部分厂家反馈，本次限产力度及 时间均要弱于去年，而钢坯方面由于多数钢厂板带型产成品的利润微薄，加之成交低迷，故选择钢坯作为突破口的厂家增多，这就造成成材成交弱，有高炉的企业开 始加大钢坯外卖；而成材成交弱，调坯钢厂采购意愿就低，这又加大了供过于求的形势。恶性循环周而复始，钢坯的压力迅速加大。钢坯大跌后修复缓慢，不排除继 续下探的可能。
As for billet, as of today, Tangshan billet quotation is 3680 yuan, down 120 yuan compared with the same period last week. This week (11.12-11.16) the steel billet market began to lower after finishing a sharp fall, and the market instantly fell into freezing point. This week, although Tangshan, Beijing and other North China cities suddenly suffered from heavily polluted weather, but due to the short impact time and the relatively good air before and after, feedback from some manufacturers shows that the limited productivity and time are weaker than last year, while in the billet sector, the profits of the strip products produced by most steel mills are slight. In addition to the low turnover, the number of manufacturers choosing billet as a breakthrough increased, which resulted in weak finished product turnover, and enterprises with blast furnaces began to increase billet takeout; and weak finished product turnover resulted in low purchasing willingness of billet adjusting mills, which increased the situation of oversupply. The vicious circle is going round and round, and the pressure of billet is increasing rapidly. After the steel billet collapsed, the repair was slow, and the possibility of further investigation could not be ruled out.

带钢方面，截至今日唐山热轧带钢(2.5*355mm)唐山瑞丰3860，相比上周跌100元。截至目前，本周唐山钢坯累跌120元，期货下行明 显。贸易商拿货积极性不高，低价出货为主，调坯厂成本倒挂明显，压力加剧。加之采暖季环保限产政策并未对带钢市场实际产量产生明显影响。唐山热带库存继续 下降，厂商主动出库，市场信心偏弱，受套保盘虚拟库存及黑色系期货打压影响，且当前热卷价格萎靡不振，对宽带市场继续形成压制，当前市场需求交弱观望情绪 浓。对于后市，商家心态较差，悲观看市，钢坯大跌引起恐慌情绪，南北价差偏小导致商家发货积极性差，下游用户按需采购，谨慎观望为主，多数认为目前价格尚 未触底，拿货意愿更低。综合看，预计下周价格或还继续趋弱。
As for the steel strip, as of today, Tangshan hot rolled strip (2.5*355mm) Tangshan Ruifeng 3860, down 100 yuan compared to last week. Up to now, Tangshan billet fell 120 yuan this week, futures downward obvious. Traders have low enthusiasm and low price shipments, and the cost of the plant is obviously upside down. In addition, the policy of environmental protection and limited production in the heating season has not significantly affected the actual output of the strip Market. Tangshan tropical inventory continues to decline, manufacturers take the initiative to leave the warehouse, market confidence is weak, affected by hedging virtual inventory and black futures, and the current hot coil prices are depressed, the broadband market continues to be suppressed, the current market demand is weak and wait-and-see mood is strong. For the future market, the business mentality is poor, pessimistic market, steel slab plunge caused panic, the small price gap between North and South led to poor enthusiasm for business delivery, downstream users purchase on demand, cautious wait and see, most believe that the current price has not reached the bottom, lower willingness to take goods. On the whole, prices are expected to continue to weaken next week.

管厂方面
Pipe factory

上个周末，钢坯大跌100元的消息在朋友圈刷了屏，受此影响，钢市情绪普遍悲观，现货各品种价格应声下跌，周初开市，期钢继续领跌拉低现货市场价 格，津冀地区焊镀管出厂价下调80-100元不等。周中，价格再次下探，不过随着河北启动为期15天大气环境法专项行动以及郑州发布停工整改工地名单等多 方消息的发布，期盘止跌反弹，带动现货成交氛围有所好转，但就此说明市场反转还为时尚早。从笔者市场了解到的情况来看，市场情绪依然偏悲观，普遍认为仍有 下跌空间，津冀地区焊管报价以稳为主。临近周末，上游再次探底，焊镀管报价继续稳中下调，目前河北主流管厂4寸焊管出厂报价为4060-4340元，与主 导钢厂355mm系列带钢出厂价相差200元左右，除去带钢厂的优惠政策、管厂出货时议价空间以及其他各地原料运输成本等各方面因素，目前管厂盈利空间有 限，倒挂情况依然较突出，管厂用卷板代替带钢的情况也时有发生，尤其是大规格较明显。
Last weekend, the news of billet plunge of 100 yuan in the circle of friends brushed the screen. Affected by this, the mood of steel market is generally pessimistic. Spot prices of various varieties fell. The market opened early in the week. Futures Steel continues to lead the decline in spot market prices, and the ex-factory price of welded and plated pipes in Jinji region decreased by 80-100 yuan. In the middle of the week, prices fell again, but with the launching of a 15-day special action on atmospheric environment law in Hebei and the release of news from Zhengzhou, such as the list of sites for work stoppage and renovation, the market rebounded and the spot trading atmosphere improved, but it is too early for the market to reverse. From what I know in the market, the market sentiment is still pessimistic. It is generally believed that there is still room for decline. The price of welded pipe in Tianjin-Hebei region is mainly stable. Towards the weekend, the upstream reaches the bottom again, and the price of welded and plated pipes continues to decline steadily. At present, the price of 4-inch welded pipes in Hebei Mainstream Pipe Plant is 4060-4340 yuan, which is about 200 yuan different from the price of 355mm series strips in the leading steel plant, except for the preferential policies of strip mills, bargaining space at the time of shipment of pipe mills and the transportation cost of raw materials from other places. Due to various factors, at present, the profit margin of the pipe factory is limited, and the inverted hanging situation is still prominent. The situation that the pipe factory replaces the strip steel with coiled sheets also occurs from time to time, especially in large specifications.

兰格钢铁云商平台监测数据显示，截至11月16日，唐山友发产4寸(3.75)新国标焊管现金出厂价格为4110元，比上周同期下调120元；唐 山京华产4寸(3.75)新国标焊管现金出厂价格为4060元，比上周同期下调140元；吉立(正大)产4寸(3.75)新国标焊管现金出厂价格为 4120元，比上周同期下调80元。
According to the monitoring data of Langer Steel Cloud Merchant Platform, as of November 16, Tangshan Youfa's cash ex-factory price of 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipe was 4110 yuan, down 120 yuan from the same period last week; Tangshan Jinghua's cash ex-factory price of 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipe was 4060 yuan, down 140 yuan from the same period last week; Jili's (Zhengda) production of 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipe was 4 yuan. The cash price of GB welded pipe is 4120 yuan, which is 80 yuan lower than the same period last week.

市场方面
Market aspect

本周，下游各市场焊管报价不断跟随下跌，幅度从50-100元不等。目前贸易商操作情绪较低，普遍出货为主且对后市仍不看好。库存方面，进入11 月中旬，各地需求逐渐萎缩，商家普遍采取去库存操作，各地库存不断下降。尤其东北地区，目前也进入了冰冻期，室外工程均已收尾，用管需求已降至全年最低。 其他地区也表现平平，市场信心偏弱。
This week, the prices of welded pipes in downstream markets continued to decline, ranging from 50-100 yuan. At present, traders are low in mood and generally in shipments and are still not optimistic about the market outlook. In terms of inventory, in mid-November, demand in various places has gradually shrunk. Businessmen generally take the de-inventory operation, and inventory in various places has been declining. Especially in Northeast China, it has entered a freezing period, outdoor projects have been completed, and the demand for pipes has dropped to the lowest level in the whole year. Other regions are also mediocre, with weak market confidence.

总的来看，今年环保力度明显低于去年同期，环保限产对钢价支撑有限，而进入11月份以来，终端需求不断下滑，市场信心持续偏弱，对价格形成打压。 经过前期的大幅下跌，风险已快速释放，后期再次大跌的空间有限，但目前宏观经济下行压力下预期降低，短期或仍持续弱势，下周国内焊管价格或弱势震荡为主。
Overall, this year's environmental protection efforts are significantly lower than the same period last year. Environmental production restrictions have limited support for steel prices. Since November, terminal demand has been declining, market confidence has continued to be weak, which has depressed prices. After a sharp fall in the early period, the risk has been released rapidly, and the space for further fall is limited. However, under the current downward pressure of macro-economy, the expected decline is expected, and the short-term or continued weakness is still maintained. Next week, domestic welded pipe prices or weak shocks are dominant.

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