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  当前位置 -> 行业资讯- 限产预期不明 “银十”方管市场旺季难旺 发布时间:(2018/9/26)

限产预期不明 “银十”方管市场旺季难旺


在方管市场预计京津冀及周边地区采暖季将严格限产之际,相关政策表示不再明确限产比例,并明令禁止环保限产一刀切。预期发生改变,导致钢价“金九”出现了高位宽幅震荡。方管行业分析师在接受上证报记者采访时表示,限产情况不明朗加上短期需求缺乏亮点,“银十”钢市旺季难旺。

When the management market predicts that heating season in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and the surrounding areas will be strictly limited, the relevant policies no longer specify the proportion of production restrictions, and explicitly prohibit environmental production restrictions. Expected changes, resulting in steel price "Kim Gu" appeared high and wide shocks. In an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange, an analyst from the square management industry said that the uncertain production restriction and the lack of bright spot in short-term demand made the "Yin Shi" steel market difficult to prosper in the peak season.

唐山市政府近日发布了《重点行业秋冬季差异化错峰生产绩效评价指导意见的通知》,将方管企业分为ABCD四类在秋冬季期间进行错峰生产,分别为不错峰、错峰 30%、错峰50%和错峰70%。另有市场消息称,另一个方管生产大省江苏近期也将采取限产措施。记者从江苏一家钢厂负责人处获悉,对限产有心理准备,但 截至目前尚未收到书面通知。限产形势尚不明确。

Tangshan Municipal Government recently issued a "key industries in autumn and winter differential staggered peak production performance evaluation guidance notice," will be divided into four types of ABCD in autumn and winter staggered peak production, respectively, good peak, staggered peak 30%, 50% and staggered peak 70%. Another market source said that Jiangsu, another big producer of square tube production, will also take measures to limit production in the near future. Reporters from a steel plant in Jiangsu Province, the person in charge of the Department was informed that there are psychological preparations for limiting production, but so far has not received written notice. The situation of production restriction is not clear.

分析师方式表示,从限产强度来看,唐山地区要低于去年。由于市场对于正式文件的出台已有心理准备和预期,前期征求意见稿对市场的影响已经基本消化,加之近半年限产政策频出,市场对于限产预期已产生疲劳情绪。

Analysts said that from the intensity of production restriction, Tangshan was lower than last year. As the market has psychological preparation and expectations for the introduction of official documents, the impact of the early draft on the market has been basically digested, coupled with the frequent production-limit policy in the last half of the year, the market has been fatigued for production-limit expectations.

“今年以来,全国各地纷纷出台环保减排方案,方管环保限产几乎贯穿全年,对价格形成扰动的同时,也在一定程度上打乱了方管需求的采购节奏。淡季不淡在一定程度上是透支了旺季行情。”分析师徐莉颖表示。

"Since this year, various parts of the country have introduced environmental protection and emission reduction programs, the environmental protection of the square tube production restriction almost throughout the year, the price of a disturbance at the same time, to a certain extent, also disrupted the procurement rhythm of the demand for square tube. In the off-season, to some extent, the market is overdrawn. Analyst Xu Liying said.

根据相关文件,唐山方管行业环保限产从10月1日开始执行,江苏钢厂限产尚无明确文件。对此,太平洋证券有色方管团队表示,在高利润驱动下,近期方管供给预计仍偏宽松,短期钢价看空。中期看,大部分企业预计将在采暖季之前完成超低排放改造,供给侧总体宽松应该是大概率事件。从需求端来看,未来基建及消费有边际改善的空间,能否对冲供给宽松仍需要观察。

According to the relevant documents, the environmental protection production limit of Tangshan Square Tube Industry has been implemented since October 1, and there is no clear document on the production limit of Jiangsu Steel Works. In response, the Pacific Securities Nonferrous Square Management Team said that, driven by high profits, the supply of square tubes is expected to remain loose in the near future, short-term steel prices. In the medium term, most companies are expected to complete ultra-low emissions before the heating season, and overall supply-side easing should be a probable event. From the demand side, there is room for marginal improvement in infrastructure and consumption in the future. Whether the supply can be hedged loosely remains to be seen.

分析师马力表示,由于当前的钢市价格水平相对较高,钢贸商投机性购买意愿非常弱,主要靠刚需支持市场的销售。现阶段钢材需求总量保持相对正常的水平,钢价不太容易形成比较明显的上涨走势,保持震荡的可能性更大。

Analyst Ma Li said that because the current steel market price level is relatively high, steel traders speculative purchasing intention is very weak, mainly rely on just needed to support market sales. At this stage, the total demand for steel maintains a relatively normal level, steel prices are not easy to form a relatively obvious upward trend, the possibility of maintaining volatility is greater.

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