As the earliest two major industries to carry out structural reform on supply side, coal and square management industries are generally in a better position this year. But industry experts also cautioned that there are worries in the industry. Especially in the square tube industry, under the dual pressure of capacity and environmental protection, the output is still growing. Therefore, we must establish a long-term mechanism to prevent excess. 根据中国方管工业协会近日公布的统计数据，今年方管企业经济效益持续好转。1-9月会员方管企业实现销售收入3.06万亿元，同比增长14.47%； 实现利税3466.81亿元，同比增长68.20%；实现利润总额2299.63亿元，同比增长86.01%。9月末，会员方管企业资产负债率 66.11%，同比下降3.91个百分点。
According to the statistics released recently by the China Association of Square Administration Industries, the economic benefits of Square Administration Enterprises have continued to improve this year. From January to September, member-managed enterprises realized sales revenue of 3.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.47% year on year; realized profits and taxes of 34.6681 billion yuan, an increase of 68.20% year on year; realized profits of 229.963 billion yuan, an increase of 86.01% year on year. At the end of 9, the assets and liabilities ratio of the member companies was 66.11%, down 3.91 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
But statistics also show that, driven by high profits, pig iron, crude steel and steel production increased in different degrees in the first three quarters.
At the 2018 (7th) High-end Forum on Technology and Economy of China's Square Management held on November 10, Vice President Qu Xiuli of China Steel Association said that steel prices will continue to fluctuate slightly and will not rise or fall sharply. Fourth quarter, the benefit ratio of square tube enterprises will decline, and keep growing throughout the year.
冶金工业规划研究院院长李新创接受上证报记者采访时直言，目前行业转暖向好，很大程度是供给侧改革和环保治理加码带来的结果。行业需要珍惜改革带来的 成果，要防止盲目扩大规模。若再次因非理性扩张引起产能过剩，恐怕很难有新的绝处逢生的机会。他呼吁各方面都要对市场有冷静的判断，要继续去杠杆，建立一 个防范产能过剩的长效机制，保住供给侧改革带来的成果。
Li Xinchuang, president of the Institute of Planning and Research of Metallurgical Industry, said in an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange newspaper that the current industry is turning better, largely as a result of supply-side reform and environmental protection management. The industry needs to treasure the fruits of reform and prevent blind expansion. If again due to irrational expansion caused by overcapacity, I am afraid it is very difficult to have new opportunities for success. He called on all parties to have a calm judgment on the market, continue to de-leverage, establish a long-term mechanism to prevent overcapacity, and maintain the results of supply-side reform.
Compared with the square tube industry, the coal industry has become more rational recently. At present, it has entered the peak season of coal use. According to past years'experience, coal prices will also enter a period of rise. However, the domestic power coal market has been stabilizing and weakening recently. The mainstream transaction price of 5500 cards in northern ports has maintained at 645-650 yuan/ton. The six largest power plants on the lower reaches of the coast are on the high side, and the number of days available for coal storage is as high as 32.32 days.
Feng Yu, deputy director of China Coal Transport and Marketing Association, said at the 2018 China Coal and Coal Chemical Industry Conference that this year, power plants have become more intelligent, starting to replenish stocks in the peak season, which is one of the important factors supporting the current stability of coal prices. In the case of very high inventories, the possibility of a sharp rise in coal prices is unlikely.
Looking ahead to next year's coal market, Feng Yu believes that the international trade situation will significantly suppress the upstream coal and other energy markets. With the release of advanced capacity, the supply of coal will further increase. However, the resilience of the domestic macro-economy has a greater support for coal demand, and the construction of infrastructure is good for the coal market. Overall, the growth rate of coal demand in 2019 slowed down compared with 2018.
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