历史数据显示，钢价常常在春节后一段时期内出现阶段性上涨行情。分析人士指出，从当前钢材市场库存情况及供需情况来看，今年春节后钢材市场大概率重演多头行情。“影响冬储后钢价走势的核心因素是冬储量与节后需求的匹配程度。”中信证券分析师敖?分析，冬储是阶段性供需错配的体现，背后是贸易商与钢厂的博弈。冬储发生的核心因素是春节导致需求断崖式下跌，每年2月钢材消费量平均是钢材产量的 61%。冬储期间库存大量累积集中于春节前后共计6周时间，平均占据整个累库总量的84%。从主要参与对象看，冬储是钢厂向贸易商转嫁风险的过程，其表现 一是冬储期间钢厂库存比例明显降低，二是厂库大幅累积时间比社会库存少4周。
Historical data show that steel prices often rise in stages after the Spring Festival. Analysts pointed out that from the current steel market inventory and supply and demand situation, the steel market after this Spring Festival is likely to repeat the bullish market. "The key factor affecting the trend of steel price after winter storage is the matching degree between winter reserves and post-season demand." Ao? Analyst of CITIC Securities, Winter Savings is the manifestation of staggered mismatch between supply and demand, behind which is the game between traders and steel mills. The core factor of winter storage is the cliff-like decline in demand caused by the Spring Festival, with steel consumption averaging 61% of steel output in February each year. During the winter storage period, a large number of stocks accumulated around the Spring Festival for a total of six weeks, accounting for an average of 84% of the total stockpile. From the perspective of the main participants, winter storage is a process of transferring risks from steel mills to traders. The first is that the proportion of steel mills'inventory is significantly reduced during winter storage, and the second is that the accumulated time of steel mills' warehouses is 4 weeks shorter than that of social stocks. “本轮冬储阶段的特征是高产量与低库存并行，预计本轮冬储库存中枢有望下降至2016年与2017年的高点之间，春节后需求整体有望维持韧性，钢价料将偏强运行。”他说。
"The characteristics of this round of winter storage stage are high production and low inventory. It is expected that this round of winter storage storage center will decline to the high point between 2016 and 2017. After the Spring Festival, the overall demand is expected to maintain toughness, and steel prices will be strong operation." He said.
“节后库存将小幅低于2018年同期。预计春节后首周库存将同比下降3.2%，期间库存增幅864万吨，冬储规模并不小。”申万宏源证券钢铁行业分析师姚洋分析，首先，春节前，由于不少前期检修的高炉复产，而新增检修高炉较少，因此长流程钢厂产量稳中有增。减产则主要来自于短流程钢厂，主要由于春节 放假停产和亏损主动减产。预计春节期间两周平均周产量为950万吨。其次，2018年12月以来，建材终端采购超预期，同比上升8.5%，这与地产高周转 策略和节前赶工有关。预计今年春节期间两周平均终端采购量为582万吨，与过去两年相当。
"Post-holiday inventory will be slightly lower than the same period in 2018. Inventory is expected to decrease by 3.2% in the first week after the Spring Festival. Inventory will increase by 8.64 million tons during the period, and the scale of winter storage is not small. Yao Yang, an analyst of Shenwanhongyuan Securities Steel Industry, analyzed that, first of all, before the Spring Festival, the output of the long process steel plant increased steadily due to the re-production of many blast furnaces which had been repaired earlier and fewer new ones. Production reduction mainly comes from short-process steel mills, mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday shutdown and loss initiative to reduce production. The average weekly output during the Spring Festival period is estimated to be 9.5 million tons. Secondly, since December 2018, terminal procurement of building materials has exceeded expectations, rising by 8.5% year-on-year, which is related to the high turnover strategy of real estate and pre-holiday rush. It is estimated that the average terminal purchasing volume will be 5.82 million tons in the two weeks during the Spring Festival this year, which is comparable to that in the past two years.
Probably there will be a "red start"
After the Spring Festival, steel prices are likely to be "red-blooded". "Historical data show that in the 10 years since 2009, steel prices in the first week after the Spring Festival have increased to varying degrees compared with those before the festival. The range and length of the increase are uncertain, but they are not necessarily related to the stock level in the first week after the festival." Yao Yang said that the strength of supply and demand affects the trend of steel prices.
敖?表示，通过对2016年-2018年冬储前后钢价走势进行分析，可以发现，2016年与2017年冬储之后钢价分别上涨23%与19%， 原因在于冬储期间低吨钢毛利导致低产量，且地产与基建在节后都处于上行投资周期，需求强。2018年冬储之后钢价下跌15%，原因在于冬储期间高产量叠加 较高的冬储情绪，库存累积量较大，节后复工滞后，大量库存导致贸易商产生恐慌性抛盘。
Ao? Said that through the analysis of the trend of steel prices before and after the 2016-2018 winter storage, it can be found that the steel prices rose by 23% and 19% respectively after the 2016 and 2017 winter storage. The reason is that the gross profit of low-ton steel during the winter storage period leads to low production, and the real estate and infrastructure are in an upward investment cycle after the festival, and the demand is strong. After the winter storage in 2018, steel prices fell by 15%. The reason is that during the winter storage period, high production and high storage mood, large stock accumulation, lagging recovery after the festival, a large number of inventories led to panic selling by traders.
他表示：“根据我们的模型，测算节后库存高点为2011万吨，介于2016年与2017年之间。在基建投资回升的情况下，需求韧性将延续到今 年上半年，预计3月库存去化速率将达到43.5万吨/周，显著快于2018年同期，与2017年同期的去化速度相当。在冬储库存总量较低而去化速度较快的 情况下，钢价有望继续上涨。”
According to our model, the post-holiday inventory peak is estimated to be 2.11 million tons, which is between 2016 and 2017. With the rebound of infrastructure investment, demand resilience will continue until the first half of this year. It is expected that the rate of inventory decomposition will reach 435,000 tons/week in March, which is significantly faster than the same period in 2018 and the same as the same period in 2017. The steel price is expected to continue to rise in the case of lower total winter storage stocks and faster depletion.
Yao Yang believes that steel prices will rebound at this stage after the festival, but will face downward pressure after April. "Assuming that after the end of the heating season after the Spring Festival, the weekly output will return to the peak of 10.1 million tons in April, and considering the toughness of the new construction of real estate, it is expected that the total purchasing level in March-June will increase by 1.2% compared with the same period last year, then the inventory growth rate will rebound in early April, when steel prices will face downward pressure."
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