春节假期结束以来，螺纹钢期货价格呈现冲高回落走势。农历正月十五过后下游工地将会陆续开工，将为春节后用方管需求提供一定程度的支撑。另节前焊 管、方管库存并未形成明显的累积。国家大力托底基建的政策效果也正在逐渐显现。有消息称，2019年计划新发专项债模将达到2.15万亿，较去年有较大 幅度增长。同时，1月地方债发行速度也在加快。这些都将为基建投资回升提供相当支持。
Since the end of the Spring Festival holidays, the futures prices of threaded steel have shown a trend of rising and falling. After the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, downstream construction sites will start one after another, which will provide a certain degree of support for the demand for steel after the Spring Festival. In addition, the stocks of welded pipes and square pipes before joints did not accumulate significantly. The policy effect of national vigorous underpinning infrastructure construction is also gradually showing. It is reported that the planned new special debt model will reach 2.15 trillion yuan in 2019, a substantial increase over last year. At the same time, the issuance of local bonds accelerated in January. All these will provide considerable support for the recovery of infrastructure investment. 供给方面，当前产量预期仍将保持高位，因此在需求真空期，库存仍将呈现加速累计状态。但是预计待到复工时需求将有较好表现。受国家政策和资金持续 发力的支持，基建投资增速将保持环比增长。近期钢材受需求不明确和库存快速累积的影响自高位回调，但是预计等到正月十五复工需求逐步释放后，钢铁价格将重 回升势。因此，短期不宜过分悲观。
On the supply side, the current output is expected to remain high, so in the demand vacuum period, inventory will still show an accelerated cumulative state. However, it is expected that demand will perform better by the time of resumption. Supported by the sustained development of national policies and funds, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will maintain a ring-on-ring growth. Recently, steel prices have been pulled back from a high level due to uncertain demand and rapid accumulation of inventory, but it is expected that steel prices will rebound after the resumption of demand on January 15. Therefore, the short-term should not be overly pessimistic.
Price: Up to submission, Zhengzhou now has a 4-inch (3.75) national standard production price of 4,900 yuan/ton, Juncheng's 4-inch (3.75 mm) national standard production price of 4,880 yuan/ton, and Tianhong's 4-inch (3.75 mm) production price of 4,890 yuan/ton.
| 国内方管市场方管库存正逐步累积震荡调整 | 综合来看预计短期无锡方管市场趋弱运行