方管

方管行业“喜中有忧” 厂家呼吁：再不能盲目扩产了

作为最早进行供给侧结构性改革的两大行业，煤炭和方管行业今年运行形势普遍较好。但行业专家也提醒说，目前行业运行喜中有忧。尤其是方管行业，在去产能和环保限产双重压力下，产量仍在增长。因此，必须建立防范过剩的长效机制。
As the earliest two major industries to carry out structural reform on supply side, coal and square management industries are generally in a better position this year. But industry experts also cautioned that there are worries in the industry. Especially in the square tube industry, under the dual pressure of capacity and environmental protection, the output is still growing. Therefore, we must establish a long-term mechanism to prevent excess. 根据中国方管工业协会近日公布的统计数据，今年方管企业经济效益持续好转。1-9月会员方管企业实现销售收入3.06万亿元，同比增长14.47%； 实现利税3466.81亿元，同比增长68.20%；实现利润总额2299.63亿元，同比增长86.01%。9月末，会员方管企业资产负债率 66.11%，同比下降3.91个百分点。
According to the statistics released recently by the China Association of Square Administration Industries, the economic benefits of Square Administration Enterprises have continued to improve this year. From January to September, member-managed enterprises realized sales revenue of 3.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.47% year on year; realized profits and taxes of 34.6681 billion yuan, an increase of 68.20% year on year; realized profits of 229.963 billion yuan, an increase of 86.01% year on year. At the end of 9, the assets and liabilities ratio of the member companies was 66.11%, down 3.91 percentage points compared with the same period last year.

但统计数据也显示，在高利润的驱动下，前三季度生铁、粗钢和钢材产量均有不同程度的上升。
But statistics also show that, driven by high profits, pig iron, crude steel and steel production increased in different degrees in the first three quarters.

11月10日举行的2018（第七届）中国方管技术经济高端论坛上，中钢协副会长屈秀丽表示，钢价将继续呈小幅波动走势，不会大涨大跌。四季度方管企业效益环比会下降，全年保持增长。
At the 2018 (7th) High-end Forum on Technology and Economy of China's Square Management held on November 10, Vice President Qu Xiuli of China Steel Association said that steel prices will continue to fluctuate slightly and will not rise or fall sharply. Fourth quarter, the benefit ratio of square tube enterprises will decline, and keep growing throughout the year.

冶金工业规划研究院院长李新创接受上证报记者采访时直言，目前行业转暖向好，很大程度是供给侧改革和环保治理加码带来的结果。行业需要珍惜改革带来的 成果，要防止盲目扩大规模。若再次因非理性扩张引起产能过剩，恐怕很难有新的绝处逢生的机会。他呼吁各方面都要对市场有冷静的判断，要继续去杠杆，建立一 个防范产能过剩的长效机制，保住供给侧改革带来的成果。
Li Xinchuang, president of the Institute of Planning and Research of Metallurgical Industry, said in an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange newspaper that the current industry is turning better, largely as a result of supply-side reform and environmental protection management. The industry needs to treasure the fruits of reform and prevent blind expansion. If again due to irrational expansion caused by overcapacity, I am afraid it is very difficult to have new opportunities for success. He called on all parties to have a calm judgment on the market, continue to de-leverage, establish a long-term mechanism to prevent overcapacity, and maintain the results of supply-side reform.

相比方管行业，煤炭行业近期更趋理性。目前已进入用煤旺季，按照往年经验，煤价也将进入上涨期，但近期国内动力煤市场稳中趋弱，北方港口5500大卡主流交易价格维持在645-650元/吨。下游沿海六大电厂库存偏高，存煤可用天数高达32.32天。
Compared with the square tube industry, the coal industry has become more rational recently. At present, it has entered the peak season of coal use. According to past years'experience, coal prices will also enter a period of rise. However, the domestic power coal market has been stabilizing and weakening recently. The mainstream transaction price of 5500 cards in northern ports has maintained at 645-650 yuan/ton. The six largest power plants on the lower reaches of the coast are on the high side, and the number of days available for coal storage is as high as 32.32 days.

中国煤炭运销协会副理事长冯雨在2018中国煤及煤化工产业大会上表示，今年电厂变得更加智慧，从旺季的时候就开始补库存，这是支持目前煤价能够保持稳定的重要因素之一。在库存已经非常高的情况下，接下来煤炭价格大幅上涨的可能性不大。
Feng Yu, deputy director of China Coal Transport and Marketing Association, said at the 2018 China Coal and Coal Chemical Industry Conference that this year, power plants have become more intelligent, starting to replenish stocks in the peak season, which is one of the important factors supporting the current stability of coal prices. In the case of very high inventories, the possibility of a sharp rise in coal prices is unlikely.

展望明年煤市，冯雨认为国际贸易形势对上游煤炭等能源市场将形成明显的打压。随着先进产能释放，煤炭供给将进一步增加。不过，国内宏观经济的韧性对煤炭需求有较大的支撑，基础设施建设加码对煤炭市场构成利好。整体来看，2019年煤炭需求增速较2018年有所放缓。
Looking ahead to next year's coal market, Feng Yu believes that the international trade situation will significantly suppress the upstream coal and other energy markets. With the release of advanced capacity, the supply of coal will further increase. However, the resilience of the domestic macro-economy has a greater support for coal demand, and the construction of infrastructure is good for the coal market. Overall, the growth rate of coal demand in 2019 slowed down compared with 2018.

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