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多重利好助力方管价格止跌反弹后再行恢复

随着华北、华中地区相继启动出台错峰限产措施；中美贸易第七轮磋商结束，美国延后对华加征关税；美联储政策由鹰转鸽；基建项目不断开工等消息的传来，方管现货价格告别5连跌后出现了上涨。近日，华北、华中地区多地出现重度污染，河北邢台、邯郸，河南安阳、郑州等各地方政府陆续启动重污染应急预案。邢台市自2019年2月20日24时起，重污染天气橙色(Ⅱ级)预警升级为红色(Ⅰ级)预警，解除时间另行通知。
With the successive initiation of measures to limit production at staggered peaks in North and Central China, the end of the seventh round of Sino-US trade negotiations, the United States postponed imposing tariffs on China, the policy of the Federal Reserve shifted from Eagle to pigeon, and the continuous start of infrastructure projects, the spot price of square control rose after five consecutive falls. Recently, heavy pollution has occurred in many places in North and Central China. Local governments in Xingtai, Handan, Anyang, Henan and Zhengzhou have launched emergency plans for heavy pollution. Starting from 24:00 on February 20, 2019, the orange (level II) early warning of heavily polluted weather has been upgraded to red (level I) early warning, and the lifting time will be notified separately. 武安市自2019年2月21日8时起，将重污染天气Ⅱ级(橙色)应急响应升级为Ⅰ级(红色)应急响应，解除时间另行通知，相关方管企业已收到相关文件通知。
Since 8:00 on February 21, 2019, Wu'an City has upgraded the emergency response of grade II (orange) to grade I (red) for heavily polluted weather. Release time will be notified separately. Relevant managed enterprises have received notification of relevant documents.

安阳市、郑州市从2月21日晚20时起，实行红色管控。市控尘办要求全市各类建设工地务必从晚21时起停止一切施工行为。安阳市、郑州所有搅拌站从21时起停止供应商砼；所有渣土车一律停止运输。此前审批的允许施工工地一律停止施工，等待红色管控解除后再行恢复。
Anyang City and Zhengzhou City have been under red control since 20 p.m. on February 21. The Municipal Dust Control Office requires all construction sites in the city to stop all construction activities from 21 p.m. All mixing stations in Anyang and Zhengzhou will stop supplying concrete from 21 o'clock, and all dregs and earth trucks will stop transporting. Previously approved construction sites are allowed to stop construction, waiting for the red control to be lifted before resuming.

随着环保限产消息的传出，对近期钢价起到了提振作用。
With the news of environmental production restriction, steel prices have been boosted in the near future.

同时，需求正在恢复中，市场成交有所好转。据兰格方管云商平台监测，北京建材市场日成交量均在6400吨以上。而2月25日，成交最高达7200 吨，这一日成交已创2019年以来的高点。此外，随着气温逐渐回暖，近期各地基建项目不断开工，需求开始启动，市场信心逐渐恢复，钢价将呈现上涨走势。
Meanwhile, demand is recovering and market turnover is improving. According to the monitoring of Langer Square Tube Cloud Merchant Platform, the daily turnover of Beijing building materials market is more than 6400 tons. On February 25, the highest volume reached 7,200 tons, a high since 2019. In addition, with the gradual warming of the temperature, construction projects around the recent start, demand began to start, market confidence gradually restored, steel prices will show an upward trend.

国内方面，地方债提前开闸“逆周期”调控加码，1月份信贷和地方融资的释放力度大，新增信贷和社会融资创历史新高。随着宏观经济、政策环境逐渐改善，尤其是货币政策的放松对于今年上半年总体大宗商品市场价格形成支撑。
Domestically, local debts opened ahead of schedule "counter-cyclical" regulation and coding. In January, the release of credit and local financing was strong, and new credit and social financing reached a record high. With the gradual improvement of macroeconomic and policy environment, especially the relaxation of monetary policy, the overall commodity market prices in the first half of this year formed a support.

而在国际方面，外贸数据明显好于预期，减弱中美贸易战影响担忧。此外，中美贸易第七轮磋商结束，取得实质性进展，美国延后对华加征关税；美联储政策由鹰转鸽，有利于大宗商品走势。
On the international side, the foreign trade data are obviously better than expected, which weakens the worries about the impact of the Sino-US trade war. In addition, the seventh round of Sino-US trade negotiations concluded and substantial progress was made. The United States postponed imposing tariffs on China. The policy of the Federal Reserve shifted from Eagle to dove, which is conducive to the trend of commodities.

库存方面，截止2月22日，兰格方管网统计全国29个城市钢材社会库存量为1595.9万吨，较上周增长169.8万吨，幅度为11.9%；较去 年3月2日，减少了73.4万吨。兰格首席分析师马力表示，2019年冬春季，钢材库存主要集中在钢厂一级代理商手中，还有部分库存集中在钢厂手中，与前 两个冬季相比，库存结构有一定的优势。前两个冬季，中小贸易商、终端客户做了一部分冬储，这一定程度上限制了这批人的购买能力。而今年冬季，中小贸易商、 终端客户基本未做冬储，这个春季，这两批人的购买力要明显强于上两个春季。
As for stocks, as of February 22, the social stocks of steel in 29 cities in China were 15.959 million tons, an increase of 1698,000 tons, or 11.9%, compared with last week, and a decrease of 734,000 tons compared with March 2 last year. In the winter and spring of 2019, steel stocks were mainly concentrated in the hands of the first-level agents of steel mills, and some stocks were concentrated in the hands of steel mills. Compared with the previous two winters, the inventory structure has certain advantages. In the first two winters, small and medium-sized traders and end-users did some winter storage, which limited the purchasing power of these people to a certain extent. This winter, small and medium-sized traders and end-users basically did not do winter storage, this spring, the purchasing power of these two groups of people is significantly stronger than the last two spring.

截止2月26日，据监测数据显示，国内十大重点城市三级方管(Φ25mm)平均价格为3919元/吨，告别5连涨后出现了反弹，价格较2月20日累积上涨了30元/吨。而方管期货价格在近期也出现了上涨，较2月20日上涨了95元。
As of February 26, according to the monitoring data, the average price of three-tier pipe (25mm) in ten key cities in China was 3919 yuan/ton. After five consecutive increases, the price rebounded, which was 30 yuan/ton higher than the cumulative increase on February 20. The price of Square-controlled futures has also risen recently, up 95 yuan from February 20.

那么钢价是否还有进一步上涨的空间吗？
Is there any room for further increases in steel prices?

兰格方管网研究中心主任王国清表示，近期方管价格出现止跌反弹，主要是受到环保限产、市场成交好转、中美贸易取得实际进展等利好消息的影响。而随着3月份市场需求的全面启动，钢价还将有望继续出现小幅上升。
Wang Guoqing, director of Langerfang Pipeline Network Research Center, said that the recent rebound in square pipe prices was mainly affected by good news such as environmental restrictions on production, improved market turnover and real progress in Sino-US trade. With the full start of market demand in March, steel prices are expected to continue to rise slightly.

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