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本周天津方管市场将震荡观望运行反弹力度有限

天津方管市场震荡偏强运行。上周末价格上涨之后市场成交受阻，周初开市，天津方管市场价格向低位靠拢。随后几日，钢坯 再次上涨，期螺震荡偏强，再加上河钢出台较高的3月中旬结算价格，天津方管市场价格反弹，不过由于国内经济数据存在下行压力，再加上对4月份预期普遍偏 差，市场价格反弹力度有限。价格方面，截至3月15日午间，天津市场上河北钢铁集团产HPB300Φ6.5-10mm高线价格为4580-4680 元，比上周价格涨20元；河北钢铁集团产Φ18-25mm三级抗震螺纹钢价格为3940-3970元，比上周价格涨30-90元；三级盘螺价格为4030 元，比上周价格涨40元。
Tianjin Square Management Market has been shaking strongly. After last weekend's price rise, the market was blocked and opened at the beginning of the week. Tianjin Fangguan's market price was close to the low level. In the following days, the steel billet rose again, the concussion was strong, and Hegang introduced a higher settlement price in mid-March, Tianjin square tube market price rebounded. However, due to the downward pressure of domestic economic data and the general deviation of expectations for April, the rebound of market price was limited. In terms of price, as of noon on March 15, the price of HPB300 6.5-10mm high-line produced by Hebei Iron and Steel Group in Tianjin market was 4580-4680 yuan, up 20 yuan from last week's price; the price of 18-25mm three-stage aseismic threaded steel produced by Hebei Iron and Steel Group was 3940-3970 yuan, up 30-90 yuan from last week's price; and the price of third-stage threaded steel was 40yuan, up 40 yuan from last week's price. 复产预期增强，市场对4月份价格预期普遍不高，对价格持续上扬形成压制。由于两会与采暖季限产本周将要结束，复产预期使得“强原料弱成材”的情况 出现。而就算后期仍处于限产状态，但肯定会宽松于两会期间，产量增加已成必然。另外据了解，已经停产几年的轧三钢厂，近期很可能将复产，到时库存肯定会出 现明显增加，将给市场形成明显的压力。而另一方面，3月14日，国内重磅经济数据出炉，整体数据有涨有降，经济存在下行压力，也降低了市场对后期的预期。
Reproduction expectations increased, market expectations for April were generally not high, and the price continued to rise to suppress. As the two sessions and the heating season are coming to an end this week, the expected resumption of production has led to the emergence of "strong raw materials and weak mature materials". Even if the production is still limited in the later stage, it will certainly be relaxed during the two sessions, and the increase of production has become inevitable. In addition, it is understood that the rolling mill, which has been shut down for several years, is likely to resume production in the near future. At that time, inventory will definitely increase significantly, which will bring obvious pressure to the market. On the other hand, on March 14, the domestic heavy economic data came out, the overall data rose or fell, and there was downward pressure on the economy, which also reduced the market's expectations for the future.

需求继续处于释放通道以及钢厂挺价政策对短期市场价格形成较强支撑。本周需求继续处于释放通道，各地成交不同程度放量，不论钢厂还是市场去库继 续。据兰格钢铁网15日统计数据显示，天津方管市场库存总量为24.81万吨，比上周减少1.69万吨，库存下降明显，短期库存压力不大。而钢厂方面 也出台挺价政策，2019年3月13日，河钢集团在2019年3月上旬价格基础上出台2019年3月中旬方管产品销售价格政策：高线价格上调30元/ 吨：现HPB300材质Φ8-10mm高线销售价格为4730元/吨；三级螺纹钢(检尺)基价上调30元/吨：HRB400E材质Φ18-22mm螺纹销 售价格为3980元/吨；盘螺价格上调60元/吨：HRB400E抗震材质Φ8-10mm打标盘螺销售价格为4170元/吨。这次结算价比市场价格高百 元，倒逼商家不得不涨价以保住利润。
Demand continues to be in the release channel as well as the short-term market price support policy of steel mills. This week, demand continues to be in the release channel, trading volume in different degrees throughout the country, whether steel mills or the market continues to depot. According to the statistics of Lange Iron and Steel Network on the 15th, the total inventory of Tianjin Square Management Market is 248.1 million tons, which is 16.9 million tons less than last week. The inventory decline is obvious and the short-term inventory pressure is not high. On March 13, 2019, Hegang Group promulgated the selling price policy of square pipe products in mid-March 2019 on the basis of the price in early March 2019: the high-line price was increased by 30 yuan/ton; the selling price of HPB300 material 8-10mm high-line is now 4 730 yuan/ton; the basic price of third-grade threaded steel (gauge) is increased by 30 yuan/ton; the selling price of HRB400E material 18-22mm thread is 3 yuan/ton. / The price of screw increased by 60 yuan per ton: HRB400E seismic material 8-10mm marked screw sold at 4170 yuan per ton. The settlement price is 100 yuan higher than the market price, forcing businesses to raise prices to maintain profits.

综合来看，本周天津方管市场虽然对后期预期持悲观态度，但本周在环保限产以及河钢高结算的影响下价格仍勉强震荡偏强。对于后期市场，随着两会结 束，环保因素的减弱，市场主体将重回到供需面的博弈。尤其是钢厂复产以及需求持续释放、去库的速度等等将成为市场走向的主要因素。而钢厂复产以及库存的变 化有个周期，短期内市场将以观望为主。因此，预计本周天津方管市场将震荡观望运行。
In a word, although Tianjin Square Management Market held a pessimistic attitude towards the future expectations this week, the price was still barely volatile this week under the influence of environmental protection and high settlement of Hegang. For the latter market, with the end of the two sessions and the weakening of environmental protection factors, market players will return to the game of supply and demand. Especially, the reoccurrence of steel mills, the continuous release of demand, the speed of depot removal and so on will become the main factors of market trend. However, the reopening of steel mills and the change of stocks have a cycle, and the market will be mainly wait-and-see in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that the Tianjin Square Management Market will be wobbly and wait-and-see next week.

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