方管

方管股持续活跃 多因素支撑趋势行情

昨日钢铁板块逆市上涨，位居行业板块涨幅排行前列，板块内柳钢股份、华菱钢铁涨幅超5%，三钢闽光、南钢股份、韶钢松山等涨幅也较为显著。钢铁板块近期表现活跃，领涨周期品种。分析指出，在多种因素刺激下，钢价近期保持上涨趋势，为钢铁股行情提供支撑。从基本面来看，低库存是本轮行情最核心的支撑和驱动。
Yesterday, the steel plate rose against the market, ranking in the forefront of the industry plate gains, plate Liugang shares, Hualing Iron and Steel increased by more than 5%, Minguang, Nangang shares, Shaogang Songshan and other gains are more significant. Iron and steel plate has been active in recent years, leading a variety of cycles. The analysis points out that under the stimulation of a variety of factors, steel prices have maintained a rising trend in the near future, providing support for the steel market. From a fundamental point of view, low inventory is the core support and driving force of the current market.

库存低位徘徊
Low inventory

从钢铁行业基本面最新动态看，截至8月10日，全国钢材价格继续上涨，铁矿石港口库存、钢材社会库存维持下降态势。
From the latest developments in the steel industry fundamentals, as of August 10, the national steel prices continued to rise, iron ore port inventory, steel social inventory maintained a downward trend.

具体看，据券商研报显示，截至8月10日，上海地区20mm螺纹钢、4.75mm热卷、1.0mm冷轧板、20mm中厚板价格分别为4300元/ 吨，4260元/吨，4770元/吨，4420元/吨，较上上周分别上涨80元/吨、0元/吨、20元/吨、50元/吨；港口铁矿石库存为15286.9 万吨，比上上周下降123.5万吨。钢材社会库存下降0.6万吨，至999.7万吨。
Specifically, according to the brokerage research report, as of August 10, Shanghai 20 mm screw steel, 4.75 mm hot coil, 1.0 mm cold rolled plate, 20 mm plate prices were 4300 yuan / ton, 4260 yuan / ton, 4770 yuan / ton, 4420 yuan / ton, respectively, up 80 yuan / ton, 0 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton compared with last week, port iron ore inventory was 15286. .9 million tons, down 1 million 235 thousand tons from the previous week. Steel stocks dropped by 6 thousand tons to 9 million 997 thousand tons.

平安证券分析师陈建文表示，钢铁行业供给端受环保限产影响继续受限，难以释放；需求端，钢材社会库存继续保持下降趋势，随着后期基建补短板等政策逐步落实，需求有望进一步 提振。因此，从基本面来看，行业供需格局有望在政策边际放松、环保限产趋严的背景下，三季度重新趋于紧平衡状态。钢材价格有望继续保持高位波动运行，全年 行业利润有望超过去年再创历史新高。
Chen Jianwen, an analyst with Ping An Securities, said that the supply side of the steel industry was still limited by the impact of environmental restrictions on production, and it was difficult to release; on the demand side, the social stock of steel continued to decline, and with the implementation of policies such as capital construction and short plates, demand is expected to further boost.  Therefore, from the basic point of view, the supply and demand pattern of the industry is expected to be tightly balanced in the third quarter under the background of loosening policy margins and tightening environmental production restrictions. Steel prices are expected to remain high and volatile, and industry profits are expected to surpass last year's record high.

估值修复仍有空间
There is still room for valuation repair.

在近期市场震荡期间，钢铁股总体保持向上趋势，不少个股已经创出阶段新高，那么支撑板块上涨的逻辑是否发生变化？后市该如何配置？
During the recent market turmoil, steel stocks have generally maintained an upward trend, many stocks have reached stage highs, then support the logic of plate rise has changed? How to configure future market?

中信建投表示，钢铁板块仍将持续上涨。首先，从情绪面来看，目前市场远未形成一致强烈看多预期，这一点颇为健康。其次，从盘面来看，近期钢价的涨势也谈不上特别顺 畅。宏观层面的外部冲突加剧，股市剧烈波动也对黑色交易的小环境有明显影响。但这些影响并未破坏黑色小环境上涨的形态。再次，从现货和原料端来看，近期现 货跟涨或领涨以及钢坯、废钢、焦炭原料上涨也有助钢价继续上涨。在基差已收窄至100以内的背景下，现货的上涨对于行情的支撑至关重要。最后，从基本面来 看，低库存是本轮行情最核心的支撑和驱动。
CITIC said that the steel plate will continue to rise. First, from an emotional point of view, it is healthy that the market is far from forming a consensus of strong bullish expectations. Secondly, judging from the disk, the recent rise in steel prices is not particularly smooth. External conflicts at the macro level intensify, and the sharp fluctuations in the stock market also have a significant impact on the small environment of black trading. But these effects did not damage the black environment. Thirdly, from the spot and raw materials point of view, the recent spot rise or lead, as well as billet, scrap steel, coke raw materials rise also helped steel prices continue to rise. Under the background that the base has narrowed to less than 100, the rise in spot prices is crucial to the support of the market. Finally, from a basic point of view, low inventory is the core support and driving force of the current market.

招商证券表示，旺季需求来临+环保限产进一步趋严，继续看好钢铁股估值修复。继前两周唐山、常州环保限产之后，上周江西萍乡萍钢安源钢铁因环保问题，7座高炉中的5 座陆续停产，环保限产在各地进一步趋严并带来供给持续压制。同时，上周螺纹库存环比降幅为近5周来最大，其快速消化，显示下游需求转好，亦或意味着下半年 旺季需求的逐步启动。随着社会库存持续去化、环保限产带来供给适度收缩，以及再提扩大内需等宏、微观变化出现，行业迎来持续催化剂，继续看好钢铁股估值修 复机会。
China Merchants Securities said that demand in the peak season is approaching + environmental restrictions further tightening, and continue to be bullish on steel stocks valuation repair. Following the environmental production restrictions in Tangshan and Changzhou two weeks ago, the production of Anyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. of Pingxiang Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. in Jiangxi Province was suspended in five of the seven blast furnaces due to environmental problems last week, resulting in further stringent environmental production restrictions in various places and sustained pressure on supply. At the same time, last week's decline in thread inventory was the largest in nearly five weeks, its rapid digestion, indicating better downstream demand, or means the second half of the peak season demand gradually started. With the continuous depletion of social inventories, moderate contraction of supply brought about by environmental restrictions, and the re-expansion of domestic demand and other macro and micro changes, the industry ushered in a sustained catalyst, continue to be bullish on the opportunity to repair the valuation of steel stocks.

三季度旺季重点看好长材及低估值板材。首先，盈利劣势促使钢厂铁水流向“重板轻螺”，三季度长材供给压力小。其次，长材需求季节性更强，淡旺季切换强度大。三季度是传统的基建、房地产开工旺季，受此影响，长材价格及吨毛利走势季节性明显。最后，政策预期改善+基建稳增长背景下，长材更受益。
In the three quarter, we should focus on long and undervalued plates. First of all, the disadvantage of profit makes steel molten steel flow to "heavy plate and light screw", and the supply pressure of long timber in the three quarter is small.  Secondly, the demand for long timber is stronger, and the intensity of switching is strong in the rush season. The third quarter is the traditional capital construction, real estate start-up season, affected by this, long timber prices and ton gross profit trend seasonally obvious. Finally, when the policy is expected to improve and the steady growth of infrastructure, long timber will benefit more.