方管

方管市场价格上涨的动力与回落的压力并存

方管期货价格冲高回落，然后开始低谷爬坡、缓慢恢复。方管期货主力合约价格快速跌破4100元/吨之后又击穿 4000元/吨关口。相对而言，螺纹钢期货价格较热轧卷板期货价格下跌的幅度要小一些，而其恢复的势头则比后者要强劲一些。目前，螺纹钢主力合约价格已恢 复到4100元/吨以上，而热轧卷板主力合约价格尚在4000元/吨左右徘徊，二者吨材价差已经超过一百元。

The futures price of the square tube dropped sharply and then began to climb slowly and recover slowly. The main contract price of Fang Guan futures broke through 4100 yuan / ton and then broke through the 4000 yuan / ton mark. Relatively speaking, the price of rebar futures fell less than that of hot rolled coil futures, and its recovery momentum was stronger than that of the latter. At present, the main contract price of rebar has been restored to more than 4100 yuan per ton, while the main contract price of hot rolled coil still hovers around 4000 yuan per ton, the price difference between the two has exceeded 100 yuan per ton.

上周一，螺纹钢期货价格大幅冲高，主力合约最高价逼近4300元/吨，但受利空因素主导，价格下行压力太大，上周二收盘价暴跌至4071元 /吨，较前一日收盘价下降213元/吨；上周三期价继续走低，进而触底反弹，上周四和上周五期价缓慢回升。数据显示，截至9月14日23时0分，螺纹钢主 力1901合约的最新价为4155元/吨，较上一交易日结算价提高80元/吨，上涨1.96%，比前一周同期降低85元/吨，下降2.00%；最高价和最 低价分别为4156元/吨和4089元/吨，周环比分别降低88元/吨和95元/吨，分别下降2.07%和2.27%；当日下午收盘价为4090元/吨， 周环比降低96元/吨，下降2.29%。螺纹钢1810、1811、1812和1905合约的最新价分别为4520元/吨、4471元/吨、4221元 /吨和3850元/吨，较9月13日结算价分别上涨2.15%、1.57%、0.24%和0.65%。

On Monday, the price of rebar futures rose sharply, with the highest price of the main contract approaching 4,300 yuan / ton, but the downward pressure was too great due to bad news. On Tuesday, the closing price plunged to 4,071 yuan / ton, 213 yuan / ton lower than the previous day's closing price; on Wednesday, the price continued to fall, and then rebounded to the bottom, on Thursday and Friday. The price is rising slowly. The latest price of the main 1901 contract was 4155 yuan / ton, up 1.96% from the settlement price of the previous trading day, and down by 2.00% from the same period of the previous week. The highest and lowest prices were 4156 yuan / ton and 4089 yuan / ton respectively, and the weekly cycle ratio was 88 yuan / ton and 9 yuan / ton respectively. 5 yuan / ton, down 2.07% and 2.27% respectively; the closing price on the afternoon of the same day was 4090 yuan / ton, a decrease of 96 yuan / ton, down 2.29%. The latest prices of 1810, 1811, 1812 and 1905 contracts for rebar are 4520 yuan / ton, 4471 yuan / ton, 4221 yuan / ton and 3850 yuan / ton respectively, up 2.15%, 1.57%, 0.24% and 0.65% from the settlement price on September 13.

热轧卷板期价走势与螺纹钢期价走势大致相似：上周一价格冲高，主力合约最高价逼近4200元/吨，同样由于价格下行压力太大，上周二收盘价暴跌至3969元/吨，较前一日收盘价下降195元/吨；上周三期价继续走低，进而触底反弹，上周四和上周五期价缓慢恢复、回升。

The trend of hot-rolled coil price is similar to that of screw steel: the price of the main contract reached 4200 yuan / ton on Monday, and the closing price fell sharply to 3969 yuan / ton on Tuesday, 195 yuan / ton lower than the previous day's closing price. The price of last Wednesday continued to fall, and then rebounded to the bottom. Last Thursday and Friday, prices slowly resumed and rebounded.

数据显示，截至9月14日23时0分：热轧卷板主力1901合约最新价格为4035元/吨，较上一交易日结算价提高37元/吨，上涨 0.93%，但比前一周同期降低113元/吨，下降2.72%；最高价和最低价分别为4038元/吨和3985元/吨，周环比分别降低116元/吨和 125元/吨，分别下降2.79%和3.04%；当日下午收盘价为3992元/吨，较前一周同期降低122元/吨，下降2.97%。热轧卷板1810和 1905合约的最新价分别为4276元/吨和3800元/吨，较上一交易日结算价分别上涨0.78%和0.13%。

The latest price of the main 1901 contract for hot rolled coil sheet was 4035 yuan / ton at 230:00 on September 14, which was 37 yuan / ton higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.93%, but 113 yuan / ton lower than the same period of the previous week, down 2.72%; the highest price and the lowest price were 4038 yuan / ton and 3985 yuan / ton respectively, and the weekly cycle ratio was 116 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day The closing price on the afternoon of the same day was 3992 yuan / ton, down 122 yuan / ton, down 2.97%. The latest prices for the contracts of 1810 and 1905 were 4276 yuan / ton and 3800 yuan / ton, respectively, up 0.78% and 0.13% from the previous day's settlement price.

宏观经济方面，8月14日国家统计局发布的信息显示，8月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.1%，比7月份加快0.1个百分点。其中， 黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长5.9%，通用设备制造业增长5.9%，汽车制造业增长1.9%，电气机械和器材制造业增长3.3%，铁路、船舶、航空航天 和其他运输设备制造业下降0.5%。

Macroeconomic aspects, August 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released information shows that the national industrial value added above the size of 6.1% year-on-year growth in August, 0.1 percentage points faster than July. Among them, the ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry grew by 5.9%, the general equipment manufacturing industry by 5.9%, the automobile manufacturing industry by 1.9%, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry by 3.3%, and the railway, shipping, aerospace and other transport equipment manufacturing industry by 0.5%.

1月~8月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长5.3%，增速比1月~7月份回落0.2个百分点。基础设施投资同比增长4.2%，增速比 1月~7月份回落1.5个百分点；全国房地产开发投资同比增长10.1%，增速比1月~7月份回落0.1个百分点；房屋竣工面积下降11.6%；办公楼销 售面积下降6.3%；房地产开发企业到位资金国内贷款下降6.6%，利用外资下降68.3%。

From January to August, the investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points from January to July. Infrastructure investment grew by 4.2% year-on-year, the growth rate dropped by 1.5 percentage points from January to July, the national real estate development investment increased by 10.1%, the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points from January to July, the completed housing area decreased by 11.6%, office building sales area decreased by 6.3%, and the domestic loans of real estate development enterprises in place decreased by 6.6%. The utilization of foreign capital dropped by 68.3%.

当前，国内外政治经济形势、国际贸易动态直接影响着市场心态和业内对后市的预期，成为影响方管期货价格走势的重要因素。目前市场心态不够稳定，方管市场价格上涨的动力与回落的压力并存，笔者预计，近期方管期价将继续波动调整。

At present, the political and economic situation at home and abroad, international trade dynamics have a direct impact on the market mentality and the industry's expectations of the future market, become an important factor affecting the price trend of square tube futures. At present, the market mentality is not stable enough, the momentum of rising prices in the square tube Market and the pressure of falling coexist, the author anticipates that the square tube futures prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust in the near future.