方管

厂家揭示“银十”方管行情能否再度飙高？

“金九”已经进入尾声，上周全国方管市场价格冲高回落，整体市场行情变动不大。截至2018年9月25日，兰格方管综合价格指数达到170.7 点，比上周末下降了0.3，比上月末上升了0.13。对于即将迎来的“银十”，方管价格能否再度飙高？兰格专家表示，10月份保持高位震荡的可能比较大。

"Golden Nine" has entered the end, last week, the national square tube market prices plunged back and forth, the overall market price changes little. As of September 25, 2018, the Langer's Square Tube Composite Price Index was 170.7, down 0.3 from the weekend and up 0.13 from the end of last month. For the upcoming "silver ten", can square tube prices rise again? Lange experts said that in October to maintain high volatility may be relatively large.

上周，备受瞩目的唐山秋冬季差异化错峰生产方案正式发布，《重点行业秋冬季差异化错峰生产绩效评价指导意见的通知》中指出，计划于2018年10 月1日-2019年3月31日实施。唐山将方管企业分为ABCD四类：A类企业，在秋冬季期间不予错峰生产；B、C、D类企业，在秋冬季期间错峰30%- 70%不等，从限产强度来看要低于去年水平，甚至达不到要求全部停产，但总体来看与去年相比趋向宽松。

Last week, Tangshan's high-profile autumn and winter differential staggered peak production program was officially announced, "key industries in autumn and winter differential staggered peak production performance evaluation guidance notice," pointed out that it is planned to be implemented from October 1, 2008 to March 31, 2019. Tangshan will be divided into four types of square management enterprises ABCD: Class A enterprises, in the autumn and winter period do not cross-peak production; Class B, C, D enterprises, during the autumn and winter peak staggered 30% - 70%, from the point of view of the intensity of production restriction is lower than last year's level, or even can not meet the requirements of all production, but overall compared with last year tends to be relaxed.

中国方管工业协会秘书长刘振江表示，与去年相比，今年钢厂不太可能普遍被要求按一定比例减产。如果空气质量良好，需要的减产就会减少，反之亦然；他周三在大连表示，符合排放标准的工厂将获得豁免，这一消息的传出将给市场价格带来一定的压力。

Liu Zhenjiang, secretary-general of the China Square Management Industry Association, said steel mills are unlikely to be generally required to reduce production by a certain percentage this year compared with last year. If air quality is good, production cuts will be reduced, and vice versa; he said in Dalian on Wednesday that factories meeting emission standards will be exempted, and the news will put pressure on market prices.

由于今年钢企盈利较好，在环保热潮逐渐退却的情况下，不少钢企开始加入复产行列。据中钢协数据显示，9月上旬重点钢企粗钢日均产量197.20万吨，旬环比增加7.01万吨，增长3.69%。因为复产钢企增多，对后期钢价有一定的抑制。

Due to the good profit of steel enterprises this year, many steel enterprises began to join the ranks of resumption production under the circumstance of environmental protection fade. According to the data of the China Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in key steel enterprises in early September was 197.2 million tons, an increase of 70.1 million tons, an increase of 3.69%. Because of the increase of steel production enterprises, there is a certain inhibition on the later steel prices.

据兰格方管网统计显示，进入9月下旬全国百家中小钢企高炉开工率下降到了79.54%，比9月初下降了2个百分点左右。兰格方管网首席分析师马力表示，预计9月中旬、下旬产量将有所回落。

According to the statistics of Langer square pipe network, the blast furnace operation rate of 100 small and medium-sized steel enterprises dropped to 79.54% in late September, which is about 2 percentage points lower than the beginning of September. Ma Li, chief analyst of Lange square pipe network, said production is expected to recede in the middle and late September.

近期，雄安新区大规模建设将至，基建投资将超千亿元、高铁等基建项目加快审批，推出民间投资项目清单、机器人市场持续增长等一些列“钢需”消息频 传。国家财政政策、货币政策针对地方政府融资、基建做出的调整，将有助于稳定全国基建增长速度，今年四季度、明年上半年，基建整体投资状况有望出现好转， 对于稳定方管需求尤其是建筑方管需求将起到支撑作用。

Recently, the large-scale construction of Xiong'an New Area is approaching, the capital construction investment will exceed 100 billion yuan, high-speed rail and other infrastructure projects to speed up the examination and approval, the introduction of non-governmental investment projects list, the robot market continued to grow, and other "steel demand" news spread frequently. The adjustment made by the state financial and monetary policies to local government financing and infrastructure will help stabilize the growth rate of infrastructure throughout the country. In the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of next year, the overall investment situation in infrastructure is expected to improve, which will play a supporting role in stabilizing the demand for square management, especially for construction.

受全国范围内的方管需求正在逐渐好转影响，方管社会库存出现了明显的下降。兰格方管云商平台监测数据显示，截止9月21日，方管社会库存为 846.4万吨，较上周下降了13.6万吨，扭转了9月份前两周库存持续增长的态势。库存总量依然维持在较低水平，对于后期价格有一定的支持作用。

Influenced by the gradual improvement of the demand for square management throughout the country, the social stock of square management has decreased significantly. The Langer Square Cloud Merchants Platform monitoring data show that as of September 21, the Square Social Inventory was 8.464 million tons, down 136,000 tons from last week, reversing the trend of continued inventory growth in the first two weeks of September. The total inventory remains at a low level, which has some support for later price.

告别“金九”，“银十”方管行情能否再度飙高？

Farewell to "Kim Gu", "silver ten" square tube market can rise again?

据兰格首席分析师马力表示，10月份行情主要与长假后各地方管库存的增长是否超出预期、唐山的差异化限产执行时间和其他省市的秋冬季大气污染防治 计划中的关于方管行业差异化限产的政策如何出台等因素有关。如果缺乏大的政策指引、缺少突发政策的影响，靠整体供需面的调节一般很难出现明确的方向性走 势，10月份保持高位震荡的可能性更大。

According to Ma Li, Langer's chief analyst, the market in October was mainly related to factors such as whether the growth of local managed inventories exceeded expectations after the long vacation, the implementation time of Tangshan's differentiated production restriction and the introduction of the policy of differentiated production restriction in the local management industry in the fall and winter air pollution control plans of other provinces and cities. In the absence of big policy guidance and sudden policy impact, it is generally difficult to have a clear direction by adjusting the overall supply and demand, and it is more likely to maintain high volatility in October.

此外，马力还提醒，12月后需防范钢价下跌的风险。因为目前相对较高的方管价格将影响贸易商的冬储意愿；连续数月保持高水平的方管产量以及实质形 成的高产能释放能力，时间长了市场总有受不了的一天；实现超低或特别排放限值的企业，采暖季限产可能将不受限值，另外中美贸易战背景下，机电产品出口可能 受到的冲击等，这些因素都将导致市场产生下跌风险。

In addition, horsepower also reminds us that we need to guard against the risk of falling steel prices after December. Because relatively high square pipe prices will affect TRADERS'willingness to store in winter, maintaining a high level of square pipe production for several months in a row and substantially forming a high capacity release capacity, there will always be an unacceptable day for the market to go on; companies that achieve ultra-low or special emission limits may have unlimited heating season production limits, and Under the background of Sino-US trade war, the export of mechanical and electrical products may be impacted. All these factors will lead to the downside risk of the market.