方管

2019年供需矛盾将是困扰钢市向好运行的大难题

近日，上海市钢贸商会副会长、上海五波钢结构材料有限公司董事长任庆平接受《中国冶金报》记者采访时表示：“2018年钢市整体稳中向好，主要得益于供给侧结构性改革、去产能、去杠杆、环保限产等政策的实施。”对于2019年钢市行情走势，任庆平从供给和需求两个层面进行具体阐述。
Recently, Ren Qingping, vice president of Shanghai Steel Trade Chamber and chairman of Shanghai Wubo Steel Structural Materials Co., Ltd., told China Metallurgical Daily in an interview: "In 2018, the overall stability of the steel market is better, mainly due to the implementation of supply-side structural reform, capacity removal, deleveraging, environmental protection and production restriction policies." Regarding the trend of steel market in 2019, Ren Qingping elaborated on the two aspects of supply and demand. 从供给层面看，钢厂产量或将增加，供应压力将加大。2018年，钢铁行业去产能任务已基本完成，取缔1.4亿吨“地条钢”。被淘汰的落后产能大 都是中小型钢厂或民营钢企，而国有大型钢企环保装备比较完善，很少被淘汰。2019年，通过淘汰落后产能来改善钢市供给状况不太可能。与此同时，部分钢厂 新增了电炉钢产能。按照目前的钢材价格，钢企盈利依然较好，生产积极性较高，不受环保限产影响的钢企基本开足马力，满负荷生产。
From the supply level, the output of steel mills may increase, and the supply pressure will increase. In 2018, the iron and steel industry has basically completed the task of capacity removal, banning 140 million tons of "floor steel". Most of the obsolete production capacity are small and medium-sized steel mills or private steel enterprises, while the large state-owned steel enterprises have relatively perfect environmental protection equipment and are seldom obsolete. In 2019, it is impossible to improve the supply situation of steel market by eliminating backward capacity. At the same time, some steel mills have added the capacity of EAF steel. According to the current steel prices, steel enterprises are still profitable, production enthusiasm is high, not affected by environmental restrictions on production of steel enterprises basically full horsepower, full load production.

从需求层面看，2019年“钢需”强度或将减弱。目前全社会杠杆率已经处于高位，以“弱刺激”来减缓经济下行速度或许是2019年的主基调。近 日，中共中央政治局会议提出要进一步“稳投资”，但不要走过度依赖投资的老路，要在不断扩大投资总量、更好发挥投资对经济增长支撑作用的同时，更关注投资 质量，扩大有效投资，寻求以高质量投资推动高质量发展的路径。据业内机构分析预测，2019年国内钢材需求量约为8亿吨，同比下降2.4%。建筑、能源、 汽车等行业用钢需求将出现小幅下降。
From the demand level, the strength of steel demand in 2019 may be weakened. At present, the leverage rate of the whole society has been at a high level. To slow down the economic downturn by "weak stimulus" may be the main tone of 2019. Recently, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed that we should further "stabilize investment", but we should not go through the old road of excessive dependence on investment. We should constantly expand the total investment and better play the role of investment in supporting economic growth, pay more attention to the quality of investment, expand effective investment, and seek ways to promote high-quality development with high-quality investment. According to the analysis and forecast of the industry, the domestic steel demand in 2019 is about 800 million tons, down 2.4% year on year. Demand for steel for construction, energy and automotive industries will decline slightly.

任庆平表示，供给和需求“一增一降”，预计2019年供需矛盾将是困扰钢市向好运行的大难题。
Ren Qingping said that the supply and demand "increase and decrease", and it is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand in 2019 will be a major problem that troubles the steel market to run well.