方管

若短期内需求拉不起来方管企业承受的压力将越来越大

春节过后，南方出现绵长的阴雨天气，延缓了终端需求启动进程，令钢贸商们心情也是一片雾蒙蒙的。据国内知名方管现货交易平台——西本新干线最新报告，面对高炉开工率小幅回升，以及钢市成交相对冷清，钢市库存正在快速累积，现已超过2017年春节后高位，并向2018年春节后高位靠拢。眼看正月十五过后，多地将进入开工季，不少钢贸商却对后市不敢过于乐观。
After the Spring Festival, there was a long rainy weather in the south, which delayed the start-up process of terminal demand, and made steel traders feel misty. According to the latest report of Xiben Shinkansen, a well-known local management spot trading platform in China, steel stock is accumulating rapidly in the face of a small rebound in blast furnace start-up rate and relatively cold trading in the steel market, which has exceeded the post-Spring Festival high in 2017 and is close to the post-Spring Festival high in 2018. After the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, many steel traders are not too optimistic about the future market. 随着手机镜头的转动，满目都是盘螺、螺纹等钢材库存。来自宁波、邯郸等地的钢贸商们用视频直观地展现了当下的库存情况。
With the mobile phone lens turning, all eyes are screw, screw and other steel stocks. Steel traders from Ningbo, Handan and other places show the current inventory situation intuitively with video.

一位钢贸企业负责人对上证报记者表示，现在业内最关注的莫过于南方地区的天气情况。如果阴雨天气还将持续，加上北方出现大面积严重雾霾天气，若短期内需求拉不起来，方管企业承受的压力将越来越大。
A person in charge of a steel trade enterprise told the Shanghai Stock Exchange newspaper that the weather situation in the southern region is the most concerned in the industry. If the rainy and rainy weather will continue, coupled with a large area of severe fog and haze weather in the north, if the short-term demand can not pull up, the steel trade enterprises will be under increasing pressure.

根据申万宏源方管团队近期对有关钢贸商调研显示，南京的一家受访钢贸企业的库存水平在50%左右。相关负责人认为，今年钢材需求释放比去年看起来更晚一些。加上大范围阴雨天气，贸易商态度都比较谨慎。广东的钢贸企业在库存累积方面更为谨慎，但相关负责人认为广东地区基建项目对于钢材的需求拉动较大，对于后期市场需求并不悲观。
According to a recent survey of steel trade by Shen Wanhongyuan's party management team, the inventory level of a steel trade enterprise in Nanjing is about 50%. Relevant officials believe that this year's steel demand release looks later than last year. In addition to extensive rainy and rainy weather, traders are more cautious. Guangdong's steel trading enterprises are more cautious about stock accumulation, but the relevant responsible persons believe that the demand for steel for infrastructure projects in Guangdong area is greater, and the market demand for later period is not pessimistic.

通过与方管业内人士交流，记者还发现目前无论钢厂、贸易商还是下游需求方都越来越关注期货市场的表现。若黑色系期货上涨，采购将明显变得积极，钢贸商也会快速恢复信心。
Through exchanges with local managers, the reporter also found that both steel mills, traders and downstream demanders are paying more and more attention to the performance of the futures market. If black futures rise, purchasing will obviously become positive, and steel traders will quickly regain confidence.

西本新干线研究员对记者表示，从全国库存统计来看，截至2月22日，全国主要城市螺纹钢库存周环比增加126.34万吨，线材库存周环比上涨33.25万吨；全国主要钢厂库存周环比增加10.86万吨，线材库存周环比增加1.75万吨。下游需求启动缓慢，新资源陆续到货，螺纹钢库存延续大幅增加。下周南方大部仍有雨水天气，库存高位对钢价存在抑制作用，但终端需求毕竟在缓慢恢复，对下周市场维持偏中性评价。
According to the national inventory statistics, as of February 22, the inventory of threaded steel in major cities increased by 12.634 million tons, wire stock increased by 332.5 million tons, and the inventory of major steel mills increased by 108.6 million tons and wire stock increased by 17.5 million tons. Downstream demand started slowly, new resources came in succession, threaded steel inventory continued to increase substantially. Most of the southern region will still have rainy weather next week, and the high stock level will restrain steel prices, but after all, the terminal demand is slowly recovering, and the market will maintain a neutral evaluation next week.