方管

三月份国内方管市场先稳后涨行业存在的尴尬现状

送走胶着2月份，迎来传统“金三”。方管市在眼望今年终端工程启动明显早于去年，各地大型项目审批助威，市场对于3月份方管市场同样抱有期待。
Goodbye glued to February, ushering in the traditional "Jinsan". Fangguan City is looking forward to the start of terminal projects this year significantly earlier than last year. Large-scale projects around the city are approved and supported. The market also looks forward to the Fangguan market in March. 1、各地竞相审批、开工大型项目络绎不绝
1. There is an endless stream of large-scale projects competing for approval and start-up.

自2018年四季度以来，各地区按照政府“抓早抓紧抓实”要求，坚持把各地项目建设放在重中之重，多措并举全力加快推荐重点项目建设。其中河南省2月底可集中开工项目达2193个，总投资8650亿元贵州正2019年共安排省重点大工程和重点项目2738个，总投资44466元。安徽将新开工1600逾个重点项目。江苏41个重大交通项目集中开工，今年将完成综合交通建设投资1370亿元。以上仅仅是开幕式，河北、河南、山东、附件、降息、四川等地总投资规模在达到接近或超2、3万亿。多种迹象表明基建投资正在回暖，为钢铁行业带来更多曙光。
Since the fourth quarter of 2018, in accordance with the government's requirement of "grasping the key projects as early as possible", all regions have insisted on putting the construction of projects in the top priority, and taken various measures to speed up the construction of recommended key projects. Henan Province can concentrate on 2193 projects at the end of February, with a total investment of 865 billion yuan. In 2019, Guizhou Province is arranging 2738 major projects and key projects, with a total investment of 44466 yuan. Anhui will start more than 1600 key projects. Forty-one major transport projects in Jiangsu have been centralized and started. This year, an investment of 137 billion yuan will be completed in the construction of comprehensive transport. These are just opening ceremonies. The total investment scale in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, accessories, interest rate cuts and Sichuan is approaching or exceeding 2,3 trillion yuan. There are many signs that investment in infrastructure is warming up, bringing more dawn to the steel industry.

2、方管厂受成本硬核支撑
2. Square Pipe Factory Supported by Cost Hard Core

月底，唐山方坯报价3480元，山东管坯报价4000-4050元。按照理论成本来核算，方坯吨价利润520元上下，管坯在800元左右。对于下游加工企业来讲，按照年前管厂主流平均采购管坯价格在3950元左右，当前临沂管厂中等热轧管出厂价格4600元，而现多发的是年前订单。按照节后4000元以上管坯理论核算，管厂利润在百元左右，利润微薄，下调空间极其有限，刚开春便亏损，情理之中难以接受，后续会随着需求释放，出货放量，价格无疑会有所上行。不过在今年新机组仍有陆续投产及去年投产今年产能正常释放，供需矛盾高于其他品种，这即是方管行业存在的尴尬现状。
At the end of the month, Tangshan billet quoted 3480 yuan, Shandong pipe billet quoted 4000-4050 yuan. According to the theoretical cost, the profit of billet price per ton is 520 yuan, and that of billet is about 800 yuan. For downstream processing enterprises, according to the average purchase price of pipe blanks in the previous year's main stream, the current Linyi Pipe Factory's medium hot-rolled pipe ex-factory price is 4600 yuan, while the current recurrence is the previous year's orders. According to the theoretical calculation of pipe billet above 4000 yuan after the festival, the profit of the pipe factory is about 100 yuan, the profit is small, the downward space is extremely limited, and it is hard to accept the loss just in the beginning of spring. The price will undoubtedly go up with the release of demand and the quantity of delivery. However, new units have been put into operation this year and released normally this year. The contradiction between supply and demand is higher than that of other types. This is the embarrassing situation of square management industry.

3、3月份社会库存会加速套现
Social Inventory will Accelerate Cash Arrangement in March and March

截至2月28日，全国22个主导地区方管社会库存在80.3万吨，和波谷64.4万吨，上升15.9万吨，仍较去年同期下降2.8万吨。对于囤货贸易商来讲，资金周转是一大问题，无疑有库存者会急于抛售套现。临沂管厂库存累计14.95万吨，较节前库存上升3.2万吨，开工率达到88.8%，开工率逐步回升，库存压力高于市场。3月前期，无论是钢厂还是市场均需要资源流通逐渐顺畅，最终流至终端需求方。
As of February 28, local social stocks in 22 leading areas in China were 830,000 tons, and 644,000 tons in Bogota, up 159,000 tons, still 28,000 tons lower than the same period last year. For hoarding traders, capital turnover is a major problem, there is no doubt that inventory will be eager to sell cash. The inventory of Linyi Pipeline Plant totals 149,500 tons, which is 32,000 tons higher than that before the festival. The start-up rate reaches 88.8%. The start-up rate gradually rebounds and the inventory pressure is higher than that of the market. In early March, both steel mills and the market need the smooth flow of resources gradually, and eventually flow to the terminal demander.

3月份迎来两会，宏观政策会陆续释放利好。中美贸易摩擦谈判有实质性进展，终端需求释放早于去年。从钢铁本身行业来看，钢厂库存未爆发高压，社会库存上升在意料之中，另外，当前建筑方管等品种价格低于春节前价格水平，底部价格无疑夯实，市场将继续小幅探涨，一旦有利好出现，会出现一波上涨行情。虽然管坯和方坯价格较大，但管坯亦不会落后同涨，管厂有小幅上调预期，但幅度可控，市场趁此出货消化库存，高价新资源陆续抵库，方管价格有上冲诉求，不过涨幅整体可控。
March ushered in the two sessions, and macro-policies will be released one after another. Substantive progress has been made in Sino-US trade frictions negotiations, with the release of terminal demand earlier than last year. From the perspective of the steel industry itself, the stock of steel mills has not exploded high pressure, and the social stock has risen unexpectedly. In addition, the current price of construction square tubes and other products is lower than the price level before the Spring Festival. The bottom price is no doubt tampered. The market will continue to rise slightly. Once a favorable situation arises, a wave of rising prices will appear. Although the price of billet and billet is relatively high, but the billet will not lag behind and rise at the same time. The pipe factory has a slight increase in expectations, but the range is controllable. The market takes advantage of this to ship and digest inventory. High-priced new resources come to the warehouse one after another. The price of square tube has an appeal, but the increase is controllable as a whole.