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-> 行业资讯－ 目前的焊管价格接近焊管厂的现金成本
发布时间：(2018/10/31)
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目前的焊管价格接近焊管厂的现金成本 |
随着焊管价格的下跌，焊管厂吨钢亏损近300元，目前的焊管价格接近焊管厂的现金成本。实际上在焊管价格持续下跌过程中，由于原料库存及产成品库存原因，导致焊管厂的亏损远大于实时测算的生产盈亏。根据历史数据的测算，当吨钢亏损达到300元/吨时，将使焊管厂的现金收入为负，也就是说很快就会出现焊管厂减产。从近期的唐山钢企高炉开工率的数据中可以看到，近期，高炉开工率维持在91%附近，远低于年初的98.65%。
With the price of welded pipe falling, the welded pipe factory lost nearly 300 yuan per ton of steel, and the current price of welded pipe is close to the cash cost of welded pipe factory. In fact, in the process of continuous decline in welded pipe prices, due to the stock of raw materials and finished products, resulting in welded pipe factory losses far greater than real-time estimates of production profits and losses. According to the historical data, when the loss of 300 yuan per ton of steel, the cash income of the welded pipe factory will be negative, that is to say, the welded pipe factory will soon reduce production. From the recent data of blast furnace operation rate of Tangshan steel enterprises, it can be seen that in the near future, the blast furnace operation rate maintained around 91%, far lower than 98.65% at the beginning of the year.
事实上，我们统计的焊管企业多为规模较大、相对具有竞争力的焊管厂，而部分小型焊管厂的开工率远低于此。尤其是近期市场资金较为紧张，已经出现少数焊管厂由于资金链断裂而倒闭停产现象。由此看来，未来粗钢供应量有下降趋势。与此同时，钢协重点焊管企业库存也出现下降，4月重点钢企的焊管库存为4029万吨，5月此数据下降为3973万吨，预计6月重点钢企焊管库存将下降至3935万吨左右。同期，唐山钢坯的库存也出现持续下滑，由高点的197万吨跌至近期的88万吨，跌幅达56%。因此，仅从库存周期来看，焊管的清库周期快要结束，焊管价格蓄势待涨。
In fact, most of our welded pipe enterprises are relatively large-scale and competitive welded pipe factories, and some of the small welded pipe factories are far below this rate of operation. Especially in the near future market funds are tight, there have been a few welded pipe factories due to the breakdown of the capital chain shutdown phenomenon. In view of this, the supply of crude steel will decrease in the future. Meanwhile, the inventory of key welded pipe enterprises of the Steel Association also declined. In April, the inventory of welded pipe of key steel enterprises was 40.29 million tons, which dropped to 39.73 million tons in May. It is expected that the inventory of welded pipe of key steel enterprises will drop to about 39.35 million tons in June. Over the same period, Tangshan billet stocks also continued to decline, from a high of 1.97 million tons to the recent 880,000 tons, a drop of 56%. Therefore, judging from the inventory cycle, the clearance period of the welded pipe is almost over, and the price of the welded pipe is ready to rise.
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