今年方管市场宽幅震荡中艰难扬升高水平增长

2019年中国方管市场行情具有两大特点：一是宽幅震荡；二是震荡扬升，全年平均价格水平略高于上年。从今年以来的市场运行情况来 看，上述特点得到了不同程度验证。今年春节过后，中国方管市场行情先是“开门红”，普遍出现较大幅度上涨，之后因为方管产量超预期释放，压迫价格回调，但 即便如此，价格环比水平依然是震荡扬升态势。据兰格钢铁网市场监测数据，今年3月22日，全国方管综合价格指数为152.8，比2018年11月28日上 升4.5%。其中长材价格指数为165.5，上升3.6%；板材价格指数为139.9，上升5.9%。同期螺纹钢主力合约收盘价格上涨3.4%。
In 2019, there are two main characteristics of China's market management: one is wide shocks; the other is rising shocks, with the annual average price level slightly higher than the previous year. From the market operation situation since this year, the above characteristics have been verified to varying degrees. After this year's Spring Festival, the market of China's Fangguan has been "red-blooded", with a relatively large increase in the market. After that, because Fangguan's output exceeded expectations, it suppressed price callback, but even so, the price ring ratio is still volatile and rising. According to the market monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Network, on March 22 this year, the national comprehensive price index of square management was 152.8, up 4.5% from November 28, 2018. Among them, the long wood price index was 165.5, up 3.6%, and the plate price index was 139.9, up 5.9%. Thread steel main contracts closed 3.4% higher in the same period. 预计今后方管市场行情还有可能出现回调，但价格环比走向的总体趋势还是震荡向上。2019年内中国方管市场行情所以呈现震荡扬升态势，主要是受到两大因素的支撑：
It is expected that there will be a pullback in the future market, but the overall trend of price ring ratio is still upward shocks. In 2019, China's market has been in a turbulent and upward trend, which is mainly supported by two factors:

一是消费需求继续旺盛。因 为今年决策部门化解经济下行压力的主要手段，就是增强固定资产投资，尤其是增强补短板的基础施设投资。有关部门在密集批复投资项目的同时，还在建设资金方 面予以保障。致使今年开工与施工力度明显强于上年，从而增加建筑用方管需求，这一点已经成为市场共识，并且被一些统计数据所证实。比如今年前2月，全国新 开工项目计划总投资同比增长4.9%，比去年同期增速提高了近23个百分点(去年为负增长17.7%)。根据统计数据测算，2019年1-2月，全国粗钢 表观消费量同比增长11.2%，比去年同期增幅又提高了1.5个百分点。预计今年一季度全国粗钢表观消费量同比增速达到或接近两位数。一季度中国粗钢消费 开局良好，亦表明全年表观需求状况应该不错，继续较高水平增长。
First, consumer demand continues to be strong. Because this year, the main means for policy-making departments to relieve the downward pressure of the economy is to increase investment in fixed assets, especially in infrastructure construction. While approving investment projects intensively, relevant departments also guarantee construction funds. As a result, this year's construction and construction efforts are significantly stronger than the previous year, thus increasing the demand for construction management, which has become a consensus in the market, and has been confirmed by some statistical data. For example, in the first two months of this year, the total investment in new construction projects increased by 4.9% year-on-year, nearly 23 percentage points higher than the same period last year (17.7% negative growth last year). According to statistical data, the apparent consumption of crude steel in China increased by 11.2% from January to February 2019, which was 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. It is expected that the apparent consumption of crude steel in the first quarter of this year will reach or close to double digits year on year. China's crude steel consumption started well in the first quarter, indicating that the year-round apparent demand situation should be good and continue to grow at a higher level.

在 国内需求增加的同时，出口需求亦在好转。海关统计数据显示，今年1-2月全国出口方管同比增长12.9%。如果中美贸易谈判能够取得积极成果，势必很大程 度改善中国方管出口外部环境。另一方面，今年大规模降低税费，也会成为促进方管出口的有利因素。因为降低税费可以降低方管生产与物流成本，进而降低出口钢 材的国内采购成本，增强国际市场竞争力。受到其推动，预计全年粗钢出口量(方管出口量折算，下同)将会转降为升。
While domestic demand is increasing, export demand is also improving. Customs statistics show that from January to February this year, the national export control increased by 12.9% compared with the same period last year. If the Sino-US trade negotiations can achieve positive results, it is bound to greatly improve the external environment of China's export control. On the other hand, this year's large-scale reduction of taxes and fees will also be a favorable factor for promoting export under local control. Because reducing taxes and fees can reduce the cost of square management production and logistics, and then reduce the cost of domestic procurement of export steel, and enhance the competitiveness of the international market. Driven by this, it is expected that the annual crude steel export volume (square pipe export volume conversion, the same below) will be reduced to increase.

二是生产成本有所增加。从 市场监测情况来看，今年影响钢铁生产与物流成本的因素，如矿石、焦炭、燃油、物流、环保支出、工资等价格费用都比上年程度不同提高。据兰格钢铁网市场监测 数据，2019年3月26日，普氏铁矿石指数为84.8点，同比上涨34%。高盛亦将今年3个月铁矿石价格预期由70美元/吨上调至80美元/吨，6个月 价格预期由60美元/吨上调至70美元/吨。2019年中国方管生产与物流成本有增无减，对于方管行情的影响是不言而喻的。
Second, production costs have increased. In terms of market monitoring, this year's factors affecting the cost of steel production and logistics, such as ore, coke, fuel, logistics, environmental protection expenditure, wages and other price costs, have increased to varying degrees compared with the previous year. According to market monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Network, on March 26, 2019, the Prussian iron ore index was 84.8 points, up 34% year on year. Goldman Sachs also raised its iron ore price forecast from $70 per ton to $80 per ton in three months and from $60 per ton to $70 per ton in six months. In 2019, the cost of production and logistics of China's Square Management has increased unabated, and the impact on Square Management's market is self-evident.

当然，年内方管行情也具有压制因素：
Of course, there are repressive factors in the management of the market during the year.

首先是钢铁产量的超预期释放。本 来由于基础萎缩(去产能)及对比基数的提高，兰格钢铁陈克新预计2019年中国粗钢产量增速应有明显回落，但实际情况却是截然相反，今年前2月全国粗钢产 量同比增长9.2%，比去年同期增速又提升了3.3个百分点，方管产量增速则提升了6.1个百分点。对于今年内中国粗钢产量到底会达到多大的数量规模？确 实难以把握。
The first is the unexpected release of steel production. Chen Kexin of Langer Iron and Steel expected that the growth rate of China's crude steel output in 2019 should be significantly reduced due to the shrinkage of the base (capacity removal) and the improvement of the comparative base, but the actual situation is the opposite. In the first two months of this year, the national crude steel output increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and increased by 3.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year, while the square pipe production increased by 6.1 percentage points. How large will China's crude steel output reach this year? It's really hard to grasp.

按 照目前粗钢产量增势推算，即便今年内中国粗钢产量增速显著回落，由今年前2个月的9.2%的同比增速回落至全年4%，按照2018年全国粗钢产量9.28 亿吨计算，2019年全国粗钢统计产量也将达到9.65亿吨。如果粗钢产量提速，增幅达到8%，2019年中国粗钢统计产量将跃上10亿吨关口，达到 10.02亿吨。
According to the current growth trend of crude steel production, even if the growth rate of crude steel production in China dropped significantly this year, the same growth rate of 9.2% in the first two months of this year dropped to 4% in the whole year. According to the national crude steel output of 928 million tons in 2018, the national crude steel output will reach 965 million tons in 2019. If crude steel output is increased by 8%, China's crude steel output will jump to 1 billion tons in 2019, reaching 1.02 billion tons.

总之，今年中国粗钢产量存在多种可能性，而无论是哪一种产量规模，都会对于今年中国方管市场行情形成重大压力。
In short, there are many possibilities for China's crude steel production this year. Whatever the scale of production, it will exert great pressure on China's market performance this year.

其次是全球经济前景不容乐观。今 年3月22日，美国国债收益率出现倒挂。这往往是美国经济将进入衰退的前兆。根据历史经验，美国国债倒挂——美联储停止加息——约半年后降息——美国经济 陷入衰退。美国作为世界经济增长的主要发动机，其经济增长的大幅放缓，势必使得全球经济增长蒙上一层阴影，进而掣肘方管市场的扬升行情。
Second, the global economic outlook is not optimistic. On March 22, the yield on US Treasury bonds went upside down. This is often a precursor to a recession in the U.S. economy. According to historical experience, the U.S. economy is in recession when the U.S. Treasury bond hangs upside down, the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates and cuts interest rates about half a year later. As the main engine of world economic growth, the dramatic slowdown of economic growth in the United States is bound to cast a shadow on the global economic growth, and thus hinder the market's ascension.

由此可见，今年中国方管价格行情难以单边持续向上，只能是在宽幅震荡中艰难扬升。
This shows that this year, it is difficult for China to unilaterally continue to rise in the price market, but only in a wide range of shocks difficult to rise.

方管