Today's opening, the domestic black department changed from yesterday's strong upward trend, except coking coal futures main contract continues to flush red, other varieties brush around and adjust downward. At the same time, the spot market has narrowed down significantly, and the price of billet and strip, which are sensitive to performance, has stopped rising and fallen. Although the "Valley Mine Event" continued to ferment after the festival and reached a stage climax, after the market was over-stimulated, the sustained power is showing a signal of attenuation, resulting in the cost support benefits after the Spring Festival and digestion are also weakening. 首先，表现在长袖善舞的资本市场方面，多头开始获利快跑，这一信号在昨晚夜盘已经开始显现。另外，从技术面来看期货市场在大幅拉升之后，在没有后续的重大利好消息炒作以及基本面支撑的条件下，也存在回吐调整的诉求。
First of all, in the long-sleeved capital market, the Bulls began to make profits, and this signal began to appear last night. In addition, from a technical point of view, the futures market after a sharp rise, in the absence of follow-up major good news speculation and fundamentals support, there are also calls for adjustment.
From the spot market point of view, after the festival is still in the preparatory stage before the start. At present, most businessmen have not returned to the market, and downstream construction enterprises have not yet returned to work on a large scale. Therefore, although the prices of steel mills and quotations of businessmen are rising, the overall market performance is relatively cold. Although there were replenishments after the festival in some areas yesterday, most of them were purchased on demand, and the real start of the market still needs to be patiently awaited.
So, what is the trend of the steel market after the futures market surges back to backwardness?
The author believes that the market will return to the basic level in the later period. After the festival, the accumulation of the market, the starting speed of terminal demand and so on are the main factors that determine the price fluctuation.
In the case of low willingness to store in the winter before the festival, there is not much active large-scale stockpiling. At the same time, during the holidays, the start-up rate of steel mills declined slightly, and the accumulative storage situation was basically the same as last year. Some areas were even slightly lower than last year. However, most of the steel mills overhauled were concentrated in short-process enterprises, while the long-process steel mills basically maintained normal production. With the rebound of blast furnace start-up rate after the holidays, the overall stock still had room to rise.
On the news side, the Sino-US trade negotiations will be held in Beijing from February 14 to 15 this week. The impact of the progress of the negotiations on the market can not be ignored.
Overall, although there is a need to adjust after the opening of the market, the space is relatively limited.
In terms of price, according to monitoring data, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in key cities in China today is 3956 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 22 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 6.5mm high-speed line in key cities in China is 4150 yuan, up 22 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil plate in key cities in China is 3858 yuan, up 34 yuan from yesterday; and the average price of 1.0mm cold plate in key cities in China is 34 yuan higher than yesterday. The price is 4340 yuan, up 25 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 20mm medium plate in key cities in China is 3965 yuan, up 27 yuan from yesterday.
In terms of raw materials, today, Changli 150*150 carbon square billet in Tangshan area is 3480 yuan, 40 yuan lower than yesterday; Beijing-Tanggang 61.5% grade Australian PB iron ore powder price is 677 yuan, 12 yuan higher than yesterday; Tangshan quasi-primary metallurgical coke with tax to plant price is 2050 yuan, which is flat compared with yesterday.
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