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在期货市场冲高回落后钢市行情走向如何？

今日开盘，国内黑色系一改昨日强势上攻的态势，除焦煤期货主力合约继续飘红，其它品种齐刷刷掉头向下调整。与此同时，现货市场涨幅明显收窄，表现敏感的钢坯及带钢价格止涨回落。虽然“淡水河谷矿山事件”在节后持续发酵并达到阶段性高潮，但市场被过度激发过后，持续性动力正在呈现衰减的信号，由此引发的成本支撑利好经过春节前后的拔高以及消化也在减弱。
Today's opening, the domestic black department changed from yesterday's strong upward trend, except coking coal futures main contract continues to flush red, other varieties brush around and adjust downward. At the same time, the spot market has narrowed down significantly, and the price of billet and strip, which are sensitive to performance, has stopped rising and fallen. Although the "Valley Mine Event" continued to ferment after the festival and reached a stage climax, after the market was over-stimulated, the sustained power is showing a signal of attenuation, resulting in the cost support benefits after the Spring Festival and digestion are also weakening. 首先，表现在长袖善舞的资本市场方面，多头开始获利快跑，这一信号在昨晚夜盘已经开始显现。另外，从技术面来看期货市场在大幅拉升之后，在没有后续的重大利好消息炒作以及基本面支撑的条件下，也存在回吐调整的诉求。
First of all, in the long-sleeved capital market, the Bulls began to make profits, and this signal began to appear last night. In addition, from a technical point of view, the futures market after a sharp rise, in the absence of follow-up major good news speculation and fundamentals support, there are also calls for adjustment.

从现货市场来看，节后尚处在启动前的准备阶段。目前大部分商家仍未返市，下游施工企业也尚未大面积返工，因此虽然钢厂价格以及商家报价在上涨，但整体市场成交表现却较为冷清。虽然个别地区昨日存在节后补货的情况，但多以按需求采购为主，市场的真正启动仍需耐心等待。
From the spot market point of view, after the festival is still in the preparatory stage before the start. At present, most businessmen have not returned to the market, and downstream construction enterprises have not yet returned to work on a large scale. Therefore, although the prices of steel mills and quotations of businessmen are rising, the overall market performance is relatively cold. Although there were replenishments after the festival in some areas yesterday, most of them were purchased on demand, and the real start of the market still needs to be patiently awaited.

那么，在期货市场冲高回落后钢市行情走向如何？
So, what is the trend of the steel market after the futures market surges back to backwardness?

笔者认为，后期市场将更多的回归到基本面，节后市场累库情况、终端需求启动速度等等是决定价格起落的主要因素。
The author believes that the market will return to the basic level in the later period. After the festival, the accumulation of the market, the starting speed of terminal demand and so on are the main factors that determine the price fluctuation.

在节前冬储意愿不高的情况下，主动大面积囤货的不多。同时，节假日期间钢厂开工率稳中略有下降，累库情况与去年基本相当，部分地区甚至略低于去年，但检修的钢厂多集中于短流程的企业，长流程的钢厂基本保持正常生产，随着节后高炉开工率的回升，整体库存仍有上升空间。
In the case of low willingness to store in the winter before the festival, there is not much active large-scale stockpiling. At the same time, during the holidays, the start-up rate of steel mills declined slightly, and the accumulative storage situation was basically the same as last year. Some areas were even slightly lower than last year. However, most of the steel mills overhauled were concentrated in short-process enterprises, while the long-process steel mills basically maintained normal production. With the rebound of blast furnace start-up rate after the holidays, the overall stock still had room to rise.

消息面上，中美贸易谈判将于本周2月14-15日在京进行，谈判进展对市场的影响不可忽视。
On the news side, the Sino-US trade negotiations will be held in Beijing from February 14 to 15 this week. The impact of the progress of the negotiations on the market can not be ignored.

总体来看，虽然开门红过后市场存在调整的需求，空间或相对有限。
Overall, although there is a need to adjust after the opening of the market, the space is relatively limited.

价格方面，据监测数据显示，今日，国内重点城市Ф25mm三级螺纹钢平均价格3956元(吨价，下同)，较昨日涨22元；国内重点城市Ф6.5mm高线平均价格为4150元，较昨日涨22元；国内重点城市5.5mm热轧卷板平均价格为3858元，较昨日涨34元；国内重点中心城市1.0mm冷板的平均价格为4340元，较昨日涨25元；国内重点城市20mm中板平均价格3965元，较昨日涨27元。
In terms of price, according to monitoring data, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in key cities in China today is 3956 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 22 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 6.5mm high-speed line in key cities in China is 4150 yuan, up 22 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil plate in key cities in China is 3858 yuan, up 34 yuan from yesterday; and the average price of 1.0mm cold plate in key cities in China is 34 yuan higher than yesterday. The price is 4340 yuan, up 25 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 20mm medium plate in key cities in China is 3965 yuan, up 27 yuan from yesterday.

原料方面，今日，唐山地区昌黎150*150普碳方坯3480元，较昨日跌40；京唐港61.5%品位澳大利亚PB铁矿粉价格为677元，较昨日涨12元；唐山地区准一级冶金焦含税到厂价格2050元，较昨日持平。
In terms of raw materials, today, Changli 150*150 carbon square billet in Tangshan area is 3480 yuan, 40 yuan lower than yesterday; Beijing-Tanggang 61.5% grade Australian PB iron ore powder price is 677 yuan, 12 yuan higher than yesterday; Tangshan quasi-primary metallurgical coke with tax to plant price is 2050 yuan, which is flat compared with yesterday.