方管

下周国内方管价格将继续坚挺运行理应稳中趋涨

本周(3.4-3.8)，国内焊管价格小幅上调，截至3月8日，国内十大重点城市4寸焊管均价为4215元(吨 价，下同)，比上周同期焊管价格上涨25元，中心城市其中唐山上调20元、天津上调40元、西安涨30元、沈阳涨50元、上海涨20元、济南涨50元、成 都涨30元，个别中心城市报价暂与上周持平。 原料方面坯方面，三月第一个交易周(3.4-3.8)钢坯市场继续延续着温和运行走势，价格始终围绕在3500元上下浮动。从目前形势看，需求方面：下 周唐山本地轧钢厂继续全部停产，采购钢坯意愿低，钢坯需求几乎为零，需求整体利空；供应方面：限产下，高炉影响难以估算，本次多以烧结焦化限制为主，对高 炉直接影响有限。期螺方面，按照趋势期螺或继续呈现震荡走势，多空均无法接受对方的控制，但在资金及基本面均没有明确方向前，钢坯或呈弱势震荡格局。
This week (3.4-3.8), the domestic welded pipe price increased slightly. As of March 8, the average price of 4-inch welded pipe in ten key cities in China was 4215 yuan (ton price, the same below), which was 25 yuan higher than that in the same period last week. Among the central cities, 20 yuan in Tangshan, 40 yuan in Tianjin, 30 yuan in Xi'an, 50 yuan in Shenyang, 20 yuan in Shanghai, 50 yuan in Jinan and 30 yuan in Chengdu, respectively. It's the same as last week. As for raw material billet, in the first trading week of March (3.4-3.8), the billet market continued to operate mildly, and the price was always floating around 3500 yuan. From the current situation, the demand side: next week Tangshan local rolling mill will continue to shut down all production, low willingness to purchase billets, billet demand is almost zero, the overall demand is bad; supply side: under the production limit, the impact of blast furnace is difficult to estimate, this time mostly focused on sintering coking restrictions, the direct impact on blast furnace is limited. As for snails, according to the trend of snails or continue to show the trend of shocks, the multi-empty can not accept the control of the other side, but before the direction of funds and fundamentals is not clear, the billet or a weak pattern of shocks. 带钢方面，截至今日唐山热轧带钢(2.5*355mm)唐山瑞丰3700，较上周同期涨50元。本周市场信心有明显好转，实际成交表现较上周良 好，库存方面对比上周有所减少，但是下游对高位价格接受度较小，库存大的商户想出货成交仍是按照价格可议销售。目前正值传统的“金三”，随着下游陆续开 工，需求逐渐释放，对市场库存消耗及心态方面是一个利好消息，加之当前价格和库存都低于去年，风险已大量释放，北方市场交投气氛良好，基于成本的支撑，市 场价格理应稳中趋涨，商家心态大体上也渐渐趋于乐观，对后市信心增强。综合看，预计下周带钢价格或继续趋强。
As for strip steel, Tangshan Ruifeng 3700 hot rolled strip steel (2.5*355mm) has increased by 50 yuan compared with the same period last week. Market confidence improved markedly this week. Actual trading performance was better than last week. Inventory decreased compared with last week. However, downstream acceptance of high prices was relatively low. Businessmen with large inventories still want to sell their goods according to the price. At present, it is the traditional "Golden Three". With the construction of downstream areas and the gradual release of demand, it is good news for the consumption of stock and mentality of the market. In addition, the current price and inventory are lower than last year. The risk has been released in large quantities. The trading atmosphere in the northern market is good. Based on the support of cost, the market price should rise steadily, and the mentality of businessmen is gradually optimistic. Confidence in the future market has increased. Taken together, it is expected that the strip price will continue to strengthen next week.

管厂方面
Pipe factory aspect

本周，迎来“两会”时间，为保证两会期间的空气质量，多地如：天津、邯郸、武安、沧州等陆续接到环保限产通知，其中对管影响较明显的是邯郸地区对 当地主流管厂的限产政策，接邯郸环保局口头通知：邯郸当地管厂生产线全停，此次停限产政策执行一个月，邯郸地区三家主导管厂焊镀管产线69条，预计单日影 响产量2万吨左右，另外原料也有进一步趋紧预期。随着两会的召开，公布的各项政策虽显平淡，但利好因素仍占多数。本周，焊镀管市场由于成交转好、厂内规格 紧缺等原因价格保持坚挺运行。截至3月7日，天津唐山邯郸主要管厂统计：本周厂内原料带钢库存40.75万吨，比上周降2.35万吨；焊管库存9.55万 吨，比上周增1万吨；镀锌管库存19.4万吨，比上周降1.2万吨；日均成交量4.93万吨，比上周增0.19万吨。从兰格网的调查来看，本周成交量出现 明显好转，据知情人士透露，本周某管厂成交量创近三年来单周最高水平。
This week, in order to ensure air quality during the two sessions, many places, such as Tianjin, Handan, Wuan and Cangzhou, have been notified of environmental production restriction. The obvious impact on management is the policy of production restriction of local mainstream pipe plants in Handan. Following the oral announcement by Handan Environmental Protection Bureau, the production line of local pipe plants in Handan has stopped completely and the policy of production restriction has been implemented for one month. There are 69 production lines of welded and plated pipes in three leading pipe factories in Handan area. It is estimated that the output will be affected by about 20,000 tons per day. In addition, the raw materials are expected to be tightened further. With the convening of the two sessions, although the policies announced are rather dull, the favorable factors still account for the majority. This week, the market for welded and plated pipes has maintained a firm operation due to good turnover and shortage of specifications in the factory. As of March 7, Tianjin Tangshan Handan main pipe factory statistics: this week's stock of raw material strip steel 407,500 tons, down 23,500 tons from last week; welded pipe inventory 95,500 tons, up 10,000 tons from last week; galvanized pipe inventory 194,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from last week; daily average turnover 49,300 tons, up 0.19 million tons from last week. According to Langer's survey, this week's turnover showed a marked improvement. According to people familiar with the situation, this week's turnover of a pipe factory reached its highest level in nearly three years.

监测数据显示，截至3月8日，唐山友发产4寸(3.75)新国标焊管现金出厂价格为3910元，比上周同期上调10元；唐山京华 产4寸(3.75)新国标焊管现金出厂价格为3960元，比上周同期上调20元；吉立(正大)产4寸(3.75)新国标焊管现金出厂价格为3980元，暂 与上周同期持平。
Monitoring data show that as of March 8, Tangshan Youfa's cash ex-factory price of 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipe was 3910 yuan, up 10 yuan from the same period last week; Tangshan Jinghua's cash ex-factory price of 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipe was 3960 yuan, up 20 yuan from the same period last week; Jili's cash ex-factory price of 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipe was 3980 yuan, temporarily equal to the same period last week.

市场方面
Market aspect

本周，下游需求陆续启动，但“两会”期间华北及周边市场受环保影响开工情况依然不理想，其他地区如中南、西南及东南地区市场成交出现好转，但目前 南方雨水天气持续不断仍对终端需求有所抑制，管材南下走货缓慢，另外东北以及西北市场开始缓慢启动，而大部分贸易商表示涨价较困难，高价位成交明显受阻。
This week, downstream demand started one after another, but during the "two sessions" period, the market in North China and its surrounding areas was still unsatisfactory due to environmental protection. Market transactions in other areas such as central-south, southwest and Southeast Areas improved. However, the rainy weather in the South continued to restrain terminal demand, pipe materials went southward slowly, and the northeast and Northwest markets began to start slowly. Most traders said it was difficult to raise prices, and high prices were obviously hindered.

总的来看，本周“两会”政策的平淡、期螺的下行和现货成品材价格的弱势调整态势让市场信心稍受打击，情绪面也出现了些许变化，但在需求没有被伪证 的情况下，笔者认为短期调整的空间不大，但仍需等待市场情绪得到充分宣泄。而受环保限产影响，目前焊镀管原料资源趋紧，厂内个别规格紧缺，因此下周国内方管价格将继续坚挺运行。
Generally speaking, this week's "two sessions" policy, the downward trend of snails and the weak adjustment of spot product prices have hit market confidence slightly, and some changes have taken place in the emotional side. However, in the absence of perjury in demand, the author believes that there is little room for short-term adjustment, but we still need to wait for market sentiment to be fully vented. Influenced by environmental protection and production restriction, the raw material resources of welded and plated pipes are tightening, and the specifications of individual plants are scarce. Therefore, the price of domestic domestic domestic pipes will continue to run steadily next week.