本周国内焊管价格震荡趋弱市场成交一般

本周(10.29-11.2)，国内焊管价格震荡趋弱，监测数据显示，截至11月2日，国内十大重点城市4寸焊管均价为4625 元(吨价，下同)，比上周同期焊管价格下跌37元，各中心城市均有不同程度的下跌，其中唐山下调120元、天津下调40元、北京降50元、西安降20元、 武汉降20元、济南降20元、广州降60元、成都降40元，市场成交一般。
This week (10.29-11.2), domestic welded pipe price shocks weakened. Monitoring data show that, as of November 2, the average price of 4-inch welded pipe in ten key cities in China was 4625 yuan (ton price, the same below), 37 yuan lower than the same period last week. The prices of welded pipe in all central cities fell in varying degrees, including Tangshan down 120 yuan, Tianjin down 40 yuan, and Tianjin down 40 yuan. Beijing down 50 yuan, Xi'an down 20 yuan, Wuhan down 20 yuan, Jinan down 20 yuan, Guangzhou down 60 yuan, Chengdu down 40 yuan, the market turnover is general. 原料方面
Raw materials

本周唐山钢坯价格先扬后抑，目前唐山钢坯出厂报价3900元，比上周同期降100元。本周唐山方面虽然再出环保文件，但介于现在上下两难的形势， 钢坯也只能在区间无谓的小涨小跌。不过随着期货的破位下跌，最终钢厂选择了打破混沌，或许对后期走势反而是好事。而由于本周本地两大仓库库存不升反降，库 存绝对值均远小于同期，故在价格进行一波合理回调后，钢坯交投或再回活跃，钢厂或重回强势。
The price of Tangshan billet rose first and then decreased this week. At present, the quotation of Tangshan billet is 3900 yuan, which is 100 yuan lower than the same period last week. This week, although Tangshan issued environmental protection documents again, the situation is in a dilemma between the top and bottom, and the billet can only rise and fall in a meaningless way in the region. However, with the breaking down of futures, steel mills finally chose to break the chaos, which may be a good thing for the future trend. As the two warehouses in this week's local stock does not rise and fall, the absolute value of inventory is far less than the same period, so after a reasonable price correction, billet trading or revitalization, steel mills or return to strong.

带钢方面，截至今日唐山热轧带钢(2.5*355mm)唐山瑞丰4040，相比上周跌110元。本周唐山355mm及以上带钢市场承压下行。北方 地区，现中宽带价格以及热卷价格均低于窄带，部分下游选择窄带替代品进行开平加工，据了解周边已有纵剪设备上线，及时应对采购危机，带钢受挤压较大，成交 好转困难。据统计，在本周后期，有部分钢厂带钢轧线检修，整体长流程带钢产能利用率有所下降，目前唐山市场带钢仓储处于低位，据本周统计大约在32万吨左 右，低库存短时间对价格有所支撑，库存降低的原因亦受轧线检修影响，供给端减少。受套保盘虚拟库存及黑色系期货打压影响，当前热卷价格萎靡不振，对宽带市 场继续形成压制，本月钢厂面临采暖季按评级生产，对价格或将有一定支撑，综合来看，预计下周唐山带钢或将稳中趋弱。
As for the steel strip, as of today, Tangshan hot rolled strip (2.5*355mm) Tangshan Ruifeng 4040, down 110 yuan compared to last week. This week Tangshan 355mm and above strip market is under pressure. In the northern region, the price of broadband and hot coil is lower than that of narrowband. Some downstream chooses narrowband substitutes for leveling. It is known that the peripheral longitudinal shear equipment has been put on line to deal with the procurement crisis in time. The strip steel is squeezed heavily and the turnover is difficult to improve. According to statistics, in the later part of this week, some steel mills'strip rolling line maintenance, the overall long process strip productivity utilization rate has decreased. At present, the Tangshan market strip storage is at a low level. According to this week's statistics, about 320,000 tons, low inventory short time to support the price, the reason for inventory reduction is also affected by the rolling line maintenance, supply and demand. The end is reduced. Influenced by hedging virtual inventory and black futures, the current hot coil price is depressed, which continues to suppress the broadband market. This month, steel mills are facing rating production in the heating season, which may support prices. In a word, Tangshan strip steel is expected to weaken steadily next week.

管厂方面
Pipe factory

从上个周末开始，随着钢坯和带钢价格走跌，津冀地区管厂出厂报价就开始小幅下调。总的来看，本周期盘持续低开低走，而对于现货来说显得较为坚挺， 尤其原料钢坯由于资源相对紧张，挺价意愿较强，焊镀管市场总体调整幅度也很有限。但临近周末，期盘大幅跳水对现货市场影响较为明显，原料钢坯、带钢价格应 声下跌，津冀地区管厂出现明显下调。从笔者了解到的情况来看，尽管原料资源紧张，但由于下游需求有限，带钢资源尚能满足厂内需求，因对后市均不看好，各管 厂成品库存较上周继续下降。成本方面，以唐山地区为例，目前主流管厂4寸焊管出厂报价为4330-4520元，与主导钢厂355mm系列带钢出厂价相差 200元之余，除去带钢厂的优惠政策、管厂出货时议价空间以及其他各地原料运输成本等各方面因素，目前管厂盈利空间尚可，倒挂情况也有明显改善。
Since last weekend, with the price of billet and strip falling, the ex-factory quotation of pipe plants in Tianjin-Hebei region has been slightly lowered. Generally speaking, this cycle continues to open low and go low, but it is relatively strong for the spot. Especially raw steel billet due to relatively tight resources, strong willingness to bid, and the overall adjustment range of welded and plated pipe market is also limited. But near the weekend, the impact of the sharp dive in futures market on the spot market is more obvious. The prices of raw material billet and strip steel fell accordingly, and pipe factories in Tianjin and Hebei region decreased significantly. From what I know, although the raw material resources are scarce, but due to the limited downstream demand, the strip steel resources can still meet the needs of the plant, because the future market is not optimistic, the inventory of finished products in each pipe factory continues to decline compared with last week. In terms of cost, taking Tangshan area as an example, the current price quotation for 4-inch welded pipe of mainstream pipe factory is 4330-4520 yuan, which is 200 yuan different from that of 355mm series strip steel of leading steel factory. Besides the preferential policy of strip mill, bargaining space at the time of delivery of pipe factory and other factors such as transportation cost of raw materials, the current profit of pipe factory is short. There is still room for improvement.

监测数据显示，截至11月2日，唐山友发产4寸(3.75)新国标焊管现金出厂价格为4290元，比上周同期下调100元；唐山 京华产4寸(3.75)新国标焊管现金出厂价格为4320元，吉立(正大)产4寸(3.75)新国标焊管现金出厂价格为4320元，比上周同期下调120 元。
Monitoring data show that as of November 2, Tangshan Youfa's cash ex-factory price for 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipes was 4290 yuan, down 100 yuan from the same period last week; Tangshan Jinghua's cash ex-factory price for 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipes was 4320 yuan; Jili's cash ex-factory price for 4-inch (3.75) new GBW pipes was 4320 yuan, compared with last week's. The period is down by 120 yuan.

市场方面
Market aspect

本周，下游各市场焊管报价陆续下跌，幅度在20-60元不等。目前来看，随着行情不断下行，加之需求有限，各地市场成交一般，终端多按需采购。另 外由于对后市并不看好，市场观望情绪较浓，各商家也开始有意识减少库存，社会库存下降明显。各地焊镀管报价陆续下跌以刺激成交，但总的来看效果也并不明 显。进入11月份，各地终端用管需求将不断萎缩，市场对后市态度消极，后期或继续下跌可能。
This week, the quotation of welded pipe in downstream markets dropped one by one, with a range of 20-60 yuan. At present, with the continuous downward trend of the market, coupled with limited demand, the local market turnover is general, terminal purchase on demand. In addition, as the future market is not optimistic, the market is more wait-and-see mood, businesses have begun to consciously reduce inventory, social inventory decline is obvious. The quotation of welded pipe is decreasing one after another to stimulate the transaction, but in general the effect is not obvious. In November, demand for terminal management will continue to shrink, the market attitude towards the future will be negative, and the latter may continue to decline.

总的来看，近期各地秋冬季环保限产政策陆续出台，但市场似乎不为所动，目前环保限产消息对钢市的影响也越来越弱化。在此情况下，上下游厂商操作谨 慎，库存正常偏下。进入十一月份，终端需求将出现萎缩，市场心态或更趋于消极，加之期盘持续低位，下周国内焊管价格或继续下探。
Generally speaking, in the recent Autumn and winter, the policy of environmental production restriction has been introduced, but the market seems to be unchanged. At present, the impact of environmental production restriction news on the steel market is becoming weaker and weaker. In this case, the upstream and downstream manufacturers are cautious in operation, and the stock is normal. In November, the terminal demand will shrink, the market mentality will be more negative, and the futures market will continue to be low. Next week, domestic welded pipe prices will continue to decline.

方管