利好扎堆黑色大反弹 需求释放前看多不追多【转摘】

今日开盘，黑色系除铁矿石弱势运行，其它品种全线上涨。现货市场价格小幅跟涨，钢坯在经过昨日回吐之后于今早再度反弹，成品材价格微幅上扬。从成交情况来看，正月十五过后，市场需求正在恢复当中，但施工企业仍未大面积返工，同时天气因素影响，对施工和运输短期产生些一定影响，目前仍需耐心等待。不过，与前几日相比，市场成交已有所好转，尤其低位成交表现较好。
At the opening of today's market, the black line has risen in all varieties except for the weak operation of iron ore. Spot market prices rose slightly, billet rebounded again this morning after yesterday's rebound, finished product prices rose slightly. From the trading situation, after January 15, the market demand is recovering, but the construction enterprises have not yet returned to work on a large scale. At the same time, weather factors have some impact on the construction and transportation in the short term. At present, we still need to wait patiently. However, compared with the previous days, market turnover has improved, especially in low-end trading performance is better. 今日利好消息相对集中，一是，全球资金面趋向宽松已经逐渐成为事实。据美联储1月会议纪要显示，几乎所有官员希望今年宣布停止缩表计划，且不确定 今年是否可能加息，被市场解读为强烈的鸽派信号。市场信心得到提振，消息公布后，美股小幅收高，道指涨逾60点；芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)农产品期货 主力合约多数收涨，伦敦基本金属集体上涨，利好大宗已反应在盘面上。
Today's good news is relatively concentrated. First, the easing of global capital has gradually become a reality. According to the summary of the January meeting of the Federal Reserve, almost all officials hope to announce the end of the drawdown plan this year and are uncertain about the possibility of raising interest rates this year, which has been interpreted by the market as a strong dove signal. Market confidence was boosted. After the announcement, U.S. stocks closed slightly higher, with the Dow rising more than 60 points. Most of the major agricultural futures contracts on the Chicago Futures Exchange (CBOT) closed higher, while London's basic metals rose collectively. The bull market has been reflected on the market.

对于国内来说，最大利好莫过于货币政策外部掣肘明显减弱，随着资本外流压力逐步降低，人民币年内企稳无忧，为制定更加宽松的货币政策提供了空间和条件。同时，凡事都有AB面，需要看到另一面的是，相应的全球经济下行的预期也正在上升。
For domestic, the greatest advantage is that the external constraints of monetary policy have been significantly weakened. With the gradual reduction of the pressure of capital outflow, the stability of the Renminbi in the year is secure, which provides space and conditions for the formulation of a more relaxed monetary policy. At the same time, everything has an AB side, we need to see the other side is that the corresponding global economic downturn expectations are also rising.

另外，中美贸易谈判继续向好发展。有传中美两国原则上已经开始就贸易争端最棘手的议题草拟纲要以终结贸易战，这是贸易战开打七个月以来最大的进展。目前中美双方高级别磋商正在过行当中，至于磋商具体进展程度，要等到磋商结束后进一步发布。
In addition, the Sino-US trade negotiations continue to develop well. It is rumored that China and the United States have in principle begun drafting an outline on the most difficult issues in trade disputes to end the trade war, which is the biggest progress in the seven months since the beginning of the trade war. At present, the high-level consultation between China and the United States is in progress. As for the specific progress of the consultation, it should be further released after the consultation.

二是来自于产业面的消息，澳大利亚煤矿事故停产，焦煤领涨。受天气因素影响，河北、山西等地错峰生产。另外，最新数据显示，累库继续增加，但仍低于去年同期，市场心态相对略好。沙钢等代表性钢厂厂价上提。
Second, news from the industry, Australia coal mine accident shut down, coking coal led the rise. Influenced by weather factors, peak production is staggered in Hebei, Shanxi and other places. In addition, the latest data show that the accumulator continues to increase, but still lower than the same period last year, the market mentality is relatively good. Shagang and other representative steel mills have raised their prices.

总体来看，市场正在向好的预期发展，但具体走向仍要看需求的释放进度和力度，需求预期的兑现，才是真正的上涨的开启，在需求未明显启动之前多空仍将在纠结中前行。同时，消息面的影响还需要最终的确认，因此短期内看多不追多，逢低布局观点暂时维持不变。
Generally speaking, the market is developing towards good expectations, but the specific direction still depends on the release progress and intensity of demand. The fulfillment of demand expectations is the real opening of the rise, and the long-run will still be in a tangle before the demand starts obviously. At the same time, the impact of the message side needs final confirmation, so in the short term, the outlook on the layout of the bullish market will remain unchanged for the time being.

价格方面，据监测数据显示，今日，国内重点城市Ф25mm三级螺纹钢平均价格3891元(吨价，下同)，较昨日涨2元；国内重点 城市Ф6.5mm高线平均价格为4103元，较昨日平稳；国内重点城市5.5mm热轧卷板平均价格为3795元，较昨日涨7元；国内重点中心城市 1.0mm冷板的平均价格为4318元，较昨日涨3元；国内重点城市20mm中板平均价格3910元，较昨日涨1元。
In terms of price, according to monitoring data, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in key cities in China today is 3891 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 2 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 6.5mm high-speed line in key cities in China is 4103 yuan, which is more stable than yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil plate in key cities in China is 3795 yuan, up 7 yuan from yesterday; and the average price of 1.0mm cold plate in key central cities in China. The price is 4318 yuan, up 3 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 20mm plate in key cities in China is 3910 yuan, up 1 yuan from yesterday.

原料方面，今日，唐山地区昌黎150*150普碳方坯3410元，较昨日涨20元；京唐港61.5%品位澳大利亚PB铁矿粉价格为640元，较昨日降10元；唐山地区准一级冶金焦含税到厂价格2150元，较昨日持平。
In terms of raw materials, today, Changli 150*150 carbon billet in Tangshan area is 3410 yuan, up 20 yuan from yesterday; Beijing-Tanggang 61.5% grade Australian PB iron ore powder price is 640 yuan, down 10 yuan from yesterday; Tangshan quasi-first grade metallurgical coke with tax arrival price is 2150 yuan, which is flat compared with yesterday.

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