本周杭州方管市场价格大幅下跌需求支撑减弱

本周杭州方管市场价格大幅下跌，周期螺先抑后扬，周初期螺下行，市场心态悲观，成交较差，现货价格下行，周三开始期螺有所回暖，但由于目前市场价格与方管厂出厂价出现倒挂现象， 贸易商为了减少亏损，积极拉涨，但涨价后成交不佳，市场心态依旧没有恢复，价格难以大幅上涨。因为经济下行压力较大，决策部门相继出台系列稳增长举措，尤 其是推动基础设施建设方面，使得在建和新建项目施工情况好于上年。

This week, Hangzhou square pipe market prices fell sharply, cyclical snails first restrained and then rose. At the beginning of the week, snails fell down, market mentality was pessimistic, trading was poor, spot prices fell, and snails began to warm up at the beginning of Wednesday. However, due to the inverted phenomenon between current market prices and steel mill ex-factory prices, traders actively pulled up in order to reduce losses, but after the price increase, the market mentality still did not recover. It is difficult for prices to rise substantially. Because of the great downward pressure of the economy, the decision-making departments have introduced a series of steady growth measures, especially in promoting infrastructure construction, which makes the construction situation of construction and new construction projects better than last year. 从宏观数据层面看，环保方面各地限产在逐步趋严或正在落实的倾向，唐山新增高炉达到8座。但是有些地方仍然存在一些重要任务没有整改到位，在环保 力度不及预期的情况之下，对于钢价产生了不利影响。后期要关注限产政策实施情况和力度。需求方面，随着天气的转热，淡季需求特点越来越明显，下游采购明显 减弱，较前段时间成交量有较大下滑，需求支撑减弱。

From the macro data point of view, in the aspect of environmental protection, the trend of production restriction is becoming stricter or being implemented, with 8 new blast furnaces added in Tangshan. But in some places, there are still some important tasks that have not been rectified. In the case of environmental protection is not as strong as expected, it has a negative impact on steel prices. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the implementation and strength of the policy. On the demand side, with the heat of the weather, off-season demand characteristics become more and more obvious, downstream purchasing has been significantly weakened, compared with the previous period, the volume of transactions has declined significantly, and demand support has been weakened.

原材料方面：截至发稿，17日午后唐山昌黎迁安钢坯稳，现普碳方坯含税出厂3560，较上周同期涨30。

Raw materials: Up to the date of submission, the Tangshan Changli Qian'an billet was stable in the afternoon of 17th, and now the ordinary carbon billet with tax was discharged 3560, up 30% from the same period last week.

库存方面：本周杭州方管库存51.83万吨：较前期整体库存减少1.64万吨：线材3.53万吨，螺纹钢48.3万吨。

Inventory: Hangzhou square pipe inventory 518,300 tons this week: 16,400 tons less than the previous overall inventory: wire rod 35,300 tons, thread steel 483,000 tons.

价格方面：截至5月17日，杭州方管批量成交指导价格：沙钢 Φ8-10mm高线为4330元,比上周同期降50，中天Φ12mm三级螺纹钢为4230元，比上周同期降60，中天Φ25mm三级螺钢为4070元，比 上周同期降60，永钢Φ8-10mm三级盘螺为4320元，比上周同期降50。

Price: As of May 17, Hangzhou square pipe volume trading guidance price: Shagang 8-10mm high line is 4330 yuan, 50 yuan lower than last week's same period, Zhongtian 12mm three-stage screw steel is 4230 yuan, 60 yuan lower than last week's same period, Zhongtian_25mm three-stage screw steel is 4070 yuan, 60 yuan lower than last week's same period, Yonggang 8-10mm three-stage screw is 4320 yuan lower than last week's same period.

综合来看综上所述，由于吨钢利润可观，钢厂生产积极性依然较大。但随着价格的走低，一些电炉有利空间压缩明显，总体应该还是会处于震荡局面。短期 内可能会出现下跌，有可能倒逼这部分钢厂减量，后期需要重点关注市场情绪面、市场供需以及宏观政策的影响，综上所述，预计下周杭州方管市场价格或弱势震荡 运行。

In summary, due to the considerable profit per ton of steel, steel mills are still more enthusiastic about production. However, with the price going down, the favorable space of some electric furnaces is obviously compressed, and the overall situation should still be in a turbulent situation. In the short term, there may be a decline, which may force the reduction of this part of the steel mill. In the later period, we need to focus on the market sentiment, market supply and demand, and the impact of macro-policy. In summary, we expect that next week Hangzhou Fangguan market price or weak shock operation

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