本周天津方管市场小幅震荡运行商家悲观心态加重

本周天津方管市场小幅震荡运行。上周后期钢价短暂反弹之后，上周末钢坯价格便出现了回落。周初两日，期螺震荡下行，钢坯价 格也继续下跌，天津方管商家悲观心态加重，天津方管市场价格小幅下跌。周中期，期螺和钢坯价格反弹，期螺收复3700，钢坯重回3550，市场悲观情绪得 到缓解，但由于成交较弱，现货市场并未跟进，天津方管市场价格以稳为主。周后期，期螺和钢坯继续小幅反弹，天津方管大户试探性小幅上调报价，天津方管市场 价格小幅反弹。

This week, Tianjin Fangguan market has been shaking slightly. After a brief rebound in steel prices late last week, billet prices fell over the weekend. On the first two days of the week, the concussion of futures snails went down, and the price of billets continued to fall. The pessimistic attitude of Tianjin square tube traders increased, and the price of Tianjin square tube market fell slightly. In the mid-week, the prices of futures snails and billets rebounded, futures snails recovered 3700, billets returned 3550, and the market pessimism was alleviated. However, due to weak transactions, the spot market did not follow up, and the price of Tianjin square tube market was mainly stable. Later in the week, snails and billets continued to rebound slightly, big square tube households in Tianjin tentatively raised their quotations slightly, and the price of square tube Market in Tianjin rebounded slightly. 环保和需求支撑都减弱，预期较悲观。虽然近期环保政策趋严，但部分地区限产力度暂时却没有达到相关规定的要求，数据显示，自5月5日起，生态环境 部陆续公布中央环保督察“回头看”专项督察情况。截止目前，湖南、湖北、山西等7省份督察结果已公布。从整体督察情况来看，7省份在整改问题上虽然取得显 著进展，但是有些地方仍然存在一些重要任务没有整改到位，甚至存在敷衍整改、表面整改、假装整改的问题。而这也进一步减弱了市场对环保限产政策的反应，市 场普遍心态认为限产政策和落实存在较大差异。而需求方面，随着天气的转热，淡季需求特点越来越明显，下游采购明显减弱，大户日成交量在200-1000 吨，较前段时间成交量有较大下滑，需求支撑减弱。

Environmental protection and demand support have weakened, and expectations are pessimistic. Although the recent environmental protection policy has become stricter, the capacity of production restriction in some areas has not met the requirements of relevant regulations for the time being. The data show that since May 5, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has published the special supervision situation of the central environmental protection inspector "looking back". Up to now, the results of supervision in Hunan, Hubei, Shanxi and other seven provinces have been published. From the overall situation of supervision, although the seven provinces have made remarkable progress in rectification, there are still some important tasks that have not been rectified in place, and even problems of perfunctory rectification, surface rectification and pretend rectification. This also further weakens the market's response to the policy of environmental production restriction, which is generally believed to be quite different from the implementation of the policy. On the demand side, with the heat of the weather, off-season demand characteristics become more and more obvious, downstream purchasing is significantly weakened, daily turnover of large households is 200-1000 tons, which has a larger decline compared with the previous period, and demand support is weakened.

中美贸易战先升级后缓和的套路再重演，期现两市犹如过山车。前不久，美方将2000亿美元中国输美商品的关税从10%上调至25%，5月13日， 中国也出手反制，自2019年6月1日0时起，对已实施加征关税的600亿美元清单美国商品中的部分，提高加征关税税率，分别实施25%、20%或10% 加征关税。对之前加征5%关税的税目商品，仍继续加征5%关税。消息一出，中美股市期货血流成河，加重了天津方管市场悲观情绪。而5月14日，美国财政部 发言人称，美国财长姆努钦计划近期前往中国进行经贸谈判，中美经贸磋商仍在继续。特朗普也将计划于6月末在日本举行的20国集团领导人峰会期间与中国领导 会晤。市场悲观情绪亦得到有效缓解。

The trade war between China and the United States escalated first, then moderated, and then repeated. It is hoped that the two cities will be like roller coasters. Not long ago, the United States raised tariffs on 200 billion US dollars of Chinese goods imported to the United States from 10% to 25%. On May 13, China also counteracted. Since 10:00 on June 1, 2019, tariff increases have been imposed on some of the 60 billion US dollars in the list of US goods that have been imposed tariffs, with tariff increases of 25%, 20% or 10% respectively. Tariffs on items previously subject to a 5% tariff will continue to be imposed. As soon as the news came out, China and the United States stock market futures flowed into a river, which aggravated the pessimism of Tianjin Fangguan market. On May 14, a spokesman for the U.S. Treasury Department said that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin planned to travel to China for economic and trade negotiations in the near future, and the Sino-U.S. economic and trade negotiations continued. Trump is also scheduled to meet with Chinese leaders during the G-20 Leaders'summit in Japan in late June. Market pessimism has also been effectively alleviated.

综合来看，本周天津方管市场在基本面震荡偏空，中美贸易战形势跌宕起伏的作用下小幅震荡运行。目前看供给大幅走弱的可能性非常低，而中美贸易战短期也充满了各种不确定性，下周天津方管市场继续下行的可能性很大。因此，预计下周天津方管市场价格将震荡下行。

To sum up, this week, Tianjin's quadrant management market was shocked and empty on the basic level, and the situation of Sino-US trade war fluctuated slightly. At present, the possibility of substantial weakening of supply is very low, and the short-term trade war between China and the United States is also full of uncertainties, and the possibility of Tianjin's Square Management Market continuing to decline next week is very high. Therefore, it is expected that Tianjin Fangguan's market price will fluctuate downward next week.

价格方面，截至5月17日午间，天津市场上河北钢铁集团产HPB300Φ6.5-10mm高线价格为4660-4740 元，比上周价格涨40元；河北钢铁集团产Φ18-25mm三级抗震螺纹钢价格为4020-4070元，基本与上周价格持平；三级盘螺价格为4120元，比 上周价格跌10元。

In terms of price, as of the noon of May 17, the price of HPB300 6.5-10mm high-speed line produced by Hebei Iron and Steel Group in Tianjin market was 4660-4740 yuan, 40 yuan higher than last week's price; the price of 18-25mm three-stage aseismic threaded steel produced by Hebei Iron and Steel Group was 4020-4070 yuan, basically the same as last week's price; the price of third-stage threaded steel was 4120 yuan, 10 yuan lower than last week's price

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