Festival iron ore soars, steel futures after the festival all the way down, down to about 3600 when the rally, to this node, the rise and fall point of view, the bullish news, look at 4000 see 3000 gods have their own words, today listed the current bullish form, let you have a judgment. First of all, we start from the raw material side, because the emergencies at the raw material side led to the sharp rise and fall of the black system. First of all, in the area of coking coal and coke, safety inspections are generally carried out in various regions, and many coal mines have been shut down and rectified. This effort will not be relaxed before the two sessions. The other is that the dam break in the Vale of Brazil has affected the annual output of iron ore. The factors directly push up the cost of steel, support the price of steel, and are also the main force pushed by the rise. 说完原料端，我们再研究下方管本身的供需，先讲一下方管利多，首先央行资金释放宽松，对于市场资金流动有一定的利好，一季度需求预期向好，中美谈判利好制造业出口，提振方管需求，地方因为环保区域性限产仍在进行。
On the raw material side, we will study the supply and demand of steel itself. First of all, we will talk about steel profitability. First, the release of central bank funds is loose, which is good for market capital flow. First quarter demand expectations are good. Sino-US negotiations are good for manufacturing exports and boost steel demand. Local environmental protection regional production restrictions are still under way.
Speaking of the good, take a second look at the bad news, the biggest shortfall of steel is inventory. As in last year, steel inventory accumulated very quickly in the beginning of this year, and the demand side has not been released after the start-up rate of steel mills recovered, resulting in a sharp increase in inventory. From today's inventory and inventory comparison with previous years, we can see that there is still a certain inventory pressure.
In addition, the weather also has a certain impact on demand-side release. When the northern weather is very cold and the construction site is difficult to start all, most areas in the south are facing a continuous rainy and rainy weather, which is expected to last until early March. The construction site is blocked and the demand is difficult to release to the maximum. This may become an important factor affecting steel prices in the later period.
At present, the expected benefits of Sino-US negotiations have been released, and the expected demand of the central bank is still releasing after the year of releasing water. Although stocks are high at present, bulls are optimistic about the later demand. They believe that once demand starts, stocks will drop sharply in a short time, and raw materials are firm. Short-holders believe that once demand is released insufficiently, stocks will increase sharply with the full start of steel mills. The price will not last long. As for raw materials, the so-called supply impact is only short-term, and the actual impact is exaggerated.
Technically speaking, it is a strong trend of shocks. If demand expectations continue to speculate, it is still possible to go further. However, we need to pay attention to the transformation of expectations and actual demand. Now it is an important period of time until early March.
| 2月22日无锡市场方矩管价格行情窄幅波动 | 预计短期无锡焊管市场价格震荡调整