方管

方管节后是闪崩？还是一路长红？

节中铁矿暴涨，节后方管期货高开后便一路下跌，跌至3600上下时候回涨，到这个节点，涨跌观点都有，利空利多消息频出，上看4000下看3000的各路大神各有说辞，今天列举下目前的多空形式，让大家自己有个判断。首先，我们从原料端着手，因为原料端的突发事件导致了黑色系的急涨急跌，首先焦煤焦炭方面，各个地区的安全检查普遍展开，很多煤矿停产整顿，这个力度在两会前想来不会放松，另外一个是巴西淡水河谷的矿山溃坝导致整个铁矿石年度产出受到影响，这两个因素直接推升了方管的成本，对于钢价产生支撑，也是上涨推动的主力军。
Festival iron ore soars, steel futures after the festival all the way down, down to about 3600 when the rally, to this node, the rise and fall point of view, the bullish news, look at 4000 see 3000 gods have their own words, today listed the current bullish form, let you have a judgment. First of all, we start from the raw material side, because the emergencies at the raw material side led to the sharp rise and fall of the black system. First of all, in the area of coking coal and coke, safety inspections are generally carried out in various regions, and many coal mines have been shut down and rectified. This effort will not be relaxed before the two sessions. The other is that the dam break in the Vale of Brazil has affected the annual output of iron ore. The factors directly push up the cost of steel, support the price of steel, and are also the main force pushed by the rise. 说完原料端，我们再研究下方管本身的供需，先讲一下方管利多，首先央行资金释放宽松，对于市场资金流动有一定的利好，一季度需求预期向好，中美谈判利好制造业出口，提振方管需求，地方因为环保区域性限产仍在进行。
On the raw material side, we will study the supply and demand of steel itself. First of all, we will talk about steel profitability. First, the release of central bank funds is loose, which is good for market capital flow. First quarter demand expectations are good. Sino-US negotiations are good for manufacturing exports and boost steel demand. Local environmental protection regional production restrictions are still under way.

说完利好，再理一下利空，目前方管最大的利空在于库存，和去年一样，今年开年方管库存累积很快，且目前在钢厂开工率恢复后，需求端并未得到释放，导致库存激增，从今日钢联库存以及和往年库存对比中我们可以看出，目前还是有一定库存压力的。
Speaking of the good, take a second look at the bad news, the biggest shortfall of steel is inventory. As in last year, steel inventory accumulated very quickly in the beginning of this year, and the demand side has not been released after the start-up rate of steel mills recovered, resulting in a sharp increase in inventory. From today's inventory and inventory comparison with previous years, we can see that there is still a certain inventory pressure.

另外天气对于需求端释放也有一定的影响，在北方天气严寒，工地难以全部开工之际，南方大部分地区迎来持续的阴雨 天气，预计将持续至三月上旬，工地开工遇阻，需求难以最大释放，这个可能成为后期左右方管价格的重要因素。
In addition, the weather also has a certain impact on demand-side release. When the northern weather is very cold and the construction site is difficult to start all, most areas in the south are facing a continuous rainy and rainy weather, which is expected to last until early March. The construction site is blocked and the demand is difficult to release to the maximum. This may become an important factor affecting steel prices in the later period.

目前来说，中美谈判的预期利好已然释放，央行放水预期的年后需求利好仍在释放，虽然目前库存较高，多头仍对后期需求感到乐观，认为一旦需求启动，库存将在短时间急剧下降，且原材料坚挺，空头则认为一旦需求释放不足，在钢厂全力开工下，库存将激增，而价格则坚挺不了 多长时间至于原材料所谓的供给影响只是短期的，实际影响被夸大。
At present, the expected benefits of Sino-US negotiations have been released, and the expected demand of the central bank is still releasing after the year of releasing water. Although stocks are high at present, bulls are optimistic about the later demand. They believe that once demand starts, stocks will drop sharply in a short time, and raw materials are firm. Short-holders believe that once demand is released insufficiently, stocks will increase sharply with the full start of steel mills. The price will not last long. As for raw materials, the so-called supply impact is only short-term, and the actual impact is exaggerated.

技术面来说，目前属于震荡偏强走势，假如需求预期继续炒作，还是有可能更进一步，但是需要关注预期和现实需求的转化情况，现在到三月初是重要的时间段。
Technically speaking, it is a strong trend of shocks. If demand expectations continue to speculate, it is still possible to go further. However, we need to pay attention to the transformation of expectations and actual demand. Now it is an important period of time until early March.

方管